English Football League / Ian Lamont / 05 March 2009 /

Having clawed themselves back to the brink of safety, Bournemouth are not as fancied as they might be to beat Port Vale. However, Ian Lamont believes that Eddie Howe's men can keep up their momentum at Dean Court this weekend. Best bet: Shrewsbury to beat Notts County [1.8].

Lady Luck - beautiful goddess or a fickle fiend? Whatever your take on Serendipity, she doesn't stick around forever, especially in sport, where she is accompanied by her screaming illegitimate children, named spurious statistics and strange trends. Lady luck might command the big picture, but her brats conspire with their little poisonous tridents to thwart her at every turn.

Take Bournemouth for example. Their game against Aldershot this week was the one time I wished I wrote this column for mid-week matches. Now the Cherries have risen to third from bottom, clawing their way back from that 17-point deduction to sniff safety, they are not the certs they would normally be to beat Port Vale.

Why? Well, if we had the answer to why people slip up when they've reached momentary safety, psychologists would be as redundant as your average City slicker. Complacency? Hardly in this case. Fatigue? Maybe. Breathing space? The lack of being able now to draw on "the world's against us" theory? Most probably; Rotherham failed to kick on after scoring 24 early points this season; Leeds, at first under Dennis Wise, clawed back a points deduction and ran out of steam after storming to within sight of automatic promotion.

A second factor stands in Bournemouth's way. Howe could be cursed by being named manager of the month, despite Brentford gaining most points.

With Danny Hollands in inspiring form since Eddie Howe became the league's youngest manager, talisman Steve Fletcher raising a crowd that promises to keep making Dean Court an intimidating place for opponents and Port Vale's plummeting fortunes, Bournemouth have every chance to take another three points on Saturday and must be backed at [1.94].

Vale's form is awful. Winning once every five games recently is part of the reason fans are calling for Dean Glover's head after just a few months as manager. On their form - and that of the teams below them - there is plenty of chance the Valiants could be relegated. Snap up the [10.0] on that scenario.

Of course, the best sides overcome these hoodoos inflicted by Lady Luck's brats and Brentford are the best side in the division - no less an expert than their manager Andy Scott says so! He has plenty of justification.

Wycombe "0-0" Wanderers lack a certain cutting edge and the Bees beat Bury in a predicted tight game last weekend, before Bury failed to bounce back. Jordan Rhodes appears to have slotted in as that final piece of the Brentford jigsaw alongside Charlie MacDonald. Competition for places is hot, defensively they are strong. They have confidence and won away in the north midweek, something they slipped up on earlier in the season. They have one defeat in nine but do travel to a Rotherham side who are in decent form themselves and had a midweek breather after their tough-looking clash with Morecambe was called off.

With Mark Robins's side conceding just two goals in six home games and none in their past four matches, I fancy the draw at [3.4]. If the Bees breach them, it surely won't be more than once. Back under [2.5] goals as well.

Shrewsbury need a home win to keep up their promotion push and should be considered the week's banker even at a short price of [1.8]. Some bookies will be a lot shorter. Paul Simpson's men reckon they can improve their away form and gain automatic promotion, but keep failing. While they consider how to improve matters they should be snapping up three points, using their formidable home record of 13 victories to down Notts County. A Myles Weston-inspired shock win over Bradford last weekend and Matt Hamshaw at last finding his scoring boots won't cut the mustard here.

They lost at Darlington in midweek, who at least seem to have steadied since the earthquake of going into administration. Last season, Rotherham were in second when they did that and fell like a stone. The Quakers, however, with a good strong squad, have the chance of a second win on the spin at home - before fixture congestion kicks in - against a limited Macclesfield, who have won once in eight attempts. Back at [1.9].

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