League Two Betting Preview: Shrews to kick-start promotion bid

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 15 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

As winter bites at the turn of the year, thoughts might turn to booking a summer holiday somewhere hot with nothing to do but watch the tide turn on the beach. But first there is the burning question of whether another sort of tide can be turned - that of Shrewsbury's away record, writes Ian Lamont.

January sorts the wheat from the chaff as the business end of the season begins and, if Shrewsbury are to be considered automatic promotion candidates, they need to start turning draws into victories.

Clubs in the top half of the table have a good idea of what can realistically be achieved and Paul Simpson's Shrews are one of several sides more than capable of pushing for a top three slot.

On the face of it, they are a tempting price at [2.5] to win for the first time away since August at a club, Port Vale, which anyone with serious promotion aspirations must look to beat.

The Valiants have lost five of the past eight league games and look destined for mid-table mediocrity, with coveted striker Luke Rodgers released and centre-back Gareth Owen, who looked like being a permanent fixture, recalled by loanees Stockport.

Add to that top scorer Marc Richards and suspended Danny Glover being unavailable and Vale - who went into last weekend's postponed match at Macclesfield with 14 fit players - look there for the taking.

Shrewsbury top scorer Grant Holt's suspension puts a slightly different complexion on matters. The 20-goal striker has justified the £180,000 outlay for his services in the summer, but in his absence the question has to be asked: are his team too reliant on his goals? He is the only player to have scored for the Shrews in the past six league games - and the team has only mustered one away goal in four matches.

Shrewsbury will certainly have to rise to Simpson's call to show they have players throughout the team capable of scoring. Six did so in the 7-0 thrashing of Gillingham at the season's start and Hereford loanee Nick Chadwick has the perfect chance to lay claim to a regular place by scoring straight away.

This match and the game away to Barnet in a couple of weeks are ones for the Shropshire side to chalk up a couple of away wins in a month which promises tough home games with Darlington and Brentford. Shrewsbury can underline their promotion aspirations with a victory.

One piece of transfer business that caught my eye last week was Danny Gritton's transfer from Macclesfield to Chesterfield, who signed him as they thought they would lose Jamie Ward. That could still happen, but Gritton was never a like-for-like replacement for Ward. Rather than pace, he offers a hold-up target man's role, which would have changed the nature of Chesterfield play a fair bit. Now he simply offers an option.

It could be just the variation Chesterfield need to kick-start the play-off challenge that was expected at the start of the campaign. Their game at Chester is a bit of a watching brief, the easier question to answer being: Where does this leave Macclesfield?
Beaten at Aldershot Town, is my prediction.

The odds on a Shots victory seem reasonably generous at [1.8]. Gary Waddock's men will have to be aware of the goal threat from Gareth Evans and Simon Yeo, but with Rhys Day back battling for a starting berth some of the defensive lapses to which they are prone might be resolved.

I thought the Shots would be a shorter price but they are the best value of seven home teams in League Two who are odds-on to win.

Brentford, beaten once at home, at [1.71] to beat Notts County ought to be the gimme the bookies want you to think it is, but if you don't want to just put your money where the layers are steering you, Dagenham offer good value at [2.36] to win at a Barnet side seemingly not shored up at the back by the arrival of Gary Breen as player-coach.

Recommendations:

Aldershot to win at [1.8]
Shrewsbury to win away at [2.5]
Brentford to win at [1.71]
Dagenham to win at [2.36]