League Two Betting Preview: Shrews must walk the walk

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 23 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

A potential four teams odds-on to win at home and another four below evens to win away: what is the world coming to? The end of the season, that's what, writes Ian Lamont. Best Bet: Rotherham to win at Bradford @ [4.2].

With five out of six odds-on teams winning last week you can see why the layers are running scared of the likes of Shrewsbury at home to Lincoln, as well as Dagenham and Wycombe, who are away at two of the division's most nondescript teams - Port Vale and Notts County.

I've been eyeing that treble for a couple of weeks, but short prices on Shrewsbury [1.6] and Wycombe [1.7] make me nervous, while the price, approaching evens, about Dagenham on Betfair is refreshingly better than many bookies. One has them at [1.66].

Dagenham have the "momentum" that all managers crave at this stage and could hold onto that play-off spot they inched past Shrewsbury to claim in midweek with a stunning victory over leaders Brentford. The Daggers host the Shrews on the final day, so three points at Meadow Lane would set them up nicely for that. The Magpies have five points from 11 games and none in four and the rampant Daggers' firepower that stung the Bees on Tuesday should prove too much for Ian McParland's side.

Shrewsbury, the more I think about it, seem the weakest of my trio. They have drawn four of their last five home games, blemishing a cracking record of 14 homes wins, the highest in the division, and in fact have drawn six of their last eight games overall. Opponents Lincoln are equally draw prone of late.

Paul Simpson even felt it necessary to urge his Shrews to "walk the walk not just talk the talk". The own goal that brought them only a second away win of the season at a strong Rotherham outfit last weekend could be just the turn of luck they need. Combine that with the urgency for points after dropping out of the play-off zone and there is enough to merit backing them.

Wycombe can still pinch the League Two title. They have two very winnable games left, with Notts County at Adams Park next weekend. Peter Taylor has had his doubters this season - including me when his side showed a penchant for draws in the six weeks to the end of March - but the Wanderers have overcome their wobble.

Taylor's record in the bottom two divisions is excellent. This is partly down to getting the best out of youngsters. He had a very strong record as England Under 21 manager and has found a gem in John Akinde, who has clearly surprised a few defences while bagging seven goals in nine games on loan from Bristol City. Apparently Taylor's "standing in the game" led to the Chairboys beating off 20 other league clubs to sign the 19-year-old, sold to City by Ebbsfleet last summer.

It was asking a lot, even for a muscle-bound forward, to work alone up front at Exeter, where Wycombe recently lost 1-0. But that was no disgrace at St James's Park, where Paul Tisdale's tactics and ability to change them during a game, which not all managers can do, has seen the Grecians defeat seven of the past eight visitors to Devon. A desperate Bournemouth were the exception in March. I'd price this match much more tightly. The chances of Sammy McIlroy's men reaching the play-offs took a real pounding with defeat at Rotherham in midweek. But having conceded in just one of six away games before Tuesday night, they are sure to set their stall out stiffly again and under 2.5 goals at [1.7] seems like a good option.

Finally, we come back to a third mention of Rotherham this week. Yes, them again, the capable party-poopers, overlooked because they began the season with a 17-point handicap. They are a cracking value bet at [4.2] to win at dispirited Bradford, whose play-off hope has disintegrated in recent weeks. It's back to the drawing board for Stuart McCall's side - who are winless in nine.

The visiting Millers, admittedly, have good and bad days. But young Reuben Reid has much to play for, lying third on 18 goals in the division's scoring charts, two behind leader Jack Lester of Chesterfield and one behind Shrewsbury's Grant Holt.

Shrewsbury at [1.6] to beat Lincoln
Wycombe at [1.7] to win at Port Vale
Dagenham at [1.95] to win at Notts County
Exeter v Morecambe under 2.5 goals at [1.7]
Value bet: Rotherham to win at Bradford [4.2]