League Two Betting Preview: Shrews fans - Holt your whining!

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 12 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Torquay, seven games unbeaten, have a poor away record, so a side bet to the [1.92] Shrewsbury win is a narrow margin of victory, under 2.5 goals at [1.95]."

Ian Lamont tells us why Shrews fans need to get over it, why Howe won't abandon Bournemouth and asks if Stan can pull off a Howe-dini act. He also selects the best bets from the weekend's League Two fixtures.

When you hear someone say "I'm over it now", part of you wants to shout "prove it by stop talking about it."

Of course, talk can be cathartic. Shrewsbury boss Paul Simpson has been insisting that Grant Holt's move to Norwich in the summer is history and critical fans have to move on.

The fact that Simpson would have been keeping an unhappy player, who would have had a disruptive influence, seems to have been lost on some supporters.

But they are frustrated that the use of the £400,000 fee - treble what they paid, don't forget - has not propelled last season's play-off contenders into runaway title chasers. If only football was so simple.

It is clear there is a gradual improvement at Shrewsbury. They might be out of the FA Cup but they sit seventh with an away wins record that matches last year's entire campaign, giving them a far more balanced feel as promotion hopefuls.

Furthermore, they have a tight defence at home - and Joss Ladabie, from midfield, and Dave Hibbert replacing Holt's goals. They need a little boost at the ProStar, with only one win in the last four league and cup games, and while still odds-on at home to a stubborn Torquay side they could well take victory. Torquay, seven games unbeaten, have a poor away record, so a side bet to the [1.92] home win is a narrow margin of victory, under 2.5 goals at [1.95].

Strangely, Gulls boss Paul Buckle was linked with the Luton Town job in a division below. His club refused permission to talk to him, as have Bournemouth with Eddie Howe and Jason Tindall over the Peterborough job.

It is interesting that, in neither case, have the managers spoken. However, I would be surprised if Howe tipped the managerial changes since April over the 50 per cent mark and upped sticks for Peterborough. Yes, 12 managerial posts of current League Two sides have changed hands since then.

Howe, the league's youngest boss, might be wary of the likes of Paul Ince who appeared to jump too many rungs too quickly, from Milton Keynes after Macclesfield to Blackburn.

He may think while the going is particularly good at the top why change? Bournemouth, as a club, have a fanbase and reputation that could support League One. Howe also hasn't won anything yet and has a job to finish, which I believe can be continued with victory at Bradford at a juicy [2.86].

Another tight game is in prospect, with respective home and away records offering relatively few goals. Again, take under 2.5 goals at [1.9].

There is little sign yet that Steve Staunton can pull off the Howe-dini act and save his side from relegation. Darlington, of course, cannot even say they would be higher without a points deduction, as the Cherries could last term.

Mor Diop might have scored his first for the club last weekend, but it will take more than one new face to turn the season around. Staunton knows it, but has been told to ship out some players before he can freshen up. Their state makes the [2.48] on visitors Burton Albion to snatch a narrow victory very backable.

There must be something in the fact that the three longest serving managers of current League Two clubs are at Accrington (1999), Dagenham (2004) and Morecambe (2006), are all graduates from non-league.

Sammy McIlroy's Shrimpers might not be having the best of seasons, but will fancy giving Crewe, who have two wins and no draws at home, a bloody nose. Morecambe have no wins away, but four draws. Laying Crewe at [2.05] seems best.

Recommended Bets:

Shrewsbury to beat Torquay at [1.95] and under 2.5 goals at [1.95]
Lay Crewe at home to Morecambe at [2.05]
Back Bournemouth at Bradford at [2.86] and under 2.5 goals at [1.9]
Back Burton at Darlington at [2.48]

* Only Burton's last-gasp winner stopped my nine-team lay making a profit last week. With three lays winning (including Port Vale who were rightly not odds-on come kick-off) the bet lost 0.5pts to £2 level stakes.