League Two Betting Preview: Odds-on combos and romantic money

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 16 October 2008 / 1 Comments

If at first you don't succeed, try again. Well, you should if you believe in what you are doing. This week Ian Lamont follows up his attempts at a homes treble with another attempt. But don't worry thrill seekers, there's also a long-odds value bet...

Some punters I know swear by backing odds-on combinations - having done enough research, of course, to feel sure of their "certs". Their joy is in finding the "value" of making about four or five times their stake via three "guaranteed" results rather than a risky outsider. The disciplined regularity of the approach, they claim, reaps rewards in the long term.

As any fan will tell you, there are no guarantees in football, but I was pretty close at my first attempt two weeks ago. Rotherham beat Grimsby, Brentford defeated Macclesfield and Bradford only just fell short when Luton scored four minutes from time - admittedly having only been behind for seven minutes!

Rotherham feature in this week's attempt, too. Key to this treble attempt is finding trends that make regular teams backable regularly and I still reckon the Millers can gain automatic promotion despite their points deduction, such are their marauding strengths. Trips South on the road might only be gaining draws, but at home, however, Mark Robins' men are a different proposition and should be backed at [1.65].

Reuben Reid has started to get a foothold in a team for the first time and his four strikes this season have all come at the Don Valley Stadium as Rotherham have scored 11 in five games.

Just as importantly, at the back, only four goals have gone in at home, keeper Warrington and defenders Tonge, Sharps, Fenton and Nicholas forming a consistent unit. Saturday's opponents Barnet might be on the up a little after a poor start to the season, but Paul Fairclough's men still look light on regular quality and experience.

Next in the treble are Bradford. They certainly don't lack resolve or spirit. If scoring three goals in the final 10 minutes to complete an impressive 3-2 comeback victory at Accrington isn't enough to convince, then one of the scorers is. Michael Boulding and Peter Thorne - still looking for 20 goals a season aged 35 - should be expected to bag goals. But substitute Barry Conlon's goals, as he forces his way into the team, continues to mark him as a player of character, having been booed when coming on 10 days ago for little apparent reason.

After a couple of reverses in recent weeks, the Bantams at [1.8] should continue their assault on the division at home to Gillingham, whose home form might be good reading but whose recent away form will make even the most ardent Gills fan want to hide behind the sofa at Final Score time.

Accrington's collapse at home makes them easy to oppose away. They are [5.0] for victory at Luton, who are my third pick at [1.8]. "We've got to win more at home. There's no point winning in front of 50 fans away," was a comment from a fan I garnered on a trip to Stanley and they won't be picking any up at Kenilworth Road.

Luton boss Mick Harford is sure to start with a more attacking formation than the cautious 4-5-1 employed last Saturday against Darlington. The home side's Claude Gnakpa, in his defensive duties, should be able to help snuff out the attacks from the lively youngster Jamie Clarke, as well as provide energy going forward.

For those seeking long-odds thrills, some of my colleagues in other divisions have been backing one of the week's big outsiders in previous weeks with great success - and there's a good case to be made for a value punt on Grimsby this weekend at [5.0].

The Mariners were unbackable until Mike Newell took charge. It is only a matter of time before this class manager gets his first win for Grimsby. After a promising start, almost defeating unbeaten Wycombe at home, Newell will be eager to make the football world take notice after 18 months out of the game. Grimsby are certainly overpriced at Exeter, who, unbeaten in three, seem ripe to be brought down to earth after a shock win at Bury. If victory is not secured for Newell on Saturday, the romantic money has to be on his side collecting three points at his old club Luton on Tuesday.

Comments (1)

1. JEL | 17 October 2008

   Rotherham at 1.65 is bet of the year. They should be 1.4 at best - anyone who saw Barnet at Dagenham last Friday will tell you that they are the worst team in the league.