English Football League / Ian Lamont / 30 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Managers and players face tricky dilemmas as Ian Lamont looks ahead to the final day of the League Two season. Best Bet: Lay Exeter at Rotherham at [2.1].

In the words of the great philosopher Homer Simpson, if you don't try you'll never fail - and if you have no ambition you can't be disappointed.

That "why bother?" aphorism sprung to mind when faced with second guessing this week's final day matches in League Two.

Look what happened in the final round of the Blue Square Premier last weekend. Five of the top seven teams needed to win to secure, or improve, play-off positions. Only one won - sinking the faltering champions: Burton Albion have much to do to be a League Two force next season.

So, with complete trepidation I foretell Bury sneaking that final automatic promotion place and Dagenham holding on to seventh.

The Shakers could pinch promotion from Exeter, who hold third but hardly any aces. Only a few weeks ago one of their players said he was thrilled at the prospect of a third successive play-offs.

That underlined their expectations - and that they have exceeded them by sitting in the top three. Furthermore, the [2.1] about them to win away against Rotherham is typical of the layers offering a short price for teams who have to win, simply believing many will pile into them because they must win. I'll take the lay, because Exeter might have proved Wycombesque in overcoming the stern defenders of Lincoln on their last away trip, but that was courtesy of a very late own goal.

The Grecians' record on long trips North this season is poor. Since beating Macclesfield, Bury and Port Vale in September and October they have not won anywhere near the North on their travels. In fact, in the past 10 away trips, they have only won at Luton and Lincoln.

Paul Tisdale is a decent tactician but he has his work cut out to beat a Millers side that has lost once in 11 home games. Manager Mark Robins wants to win. "We still have that target of an equivalent top three place," he said, presumably with an eye on next season.

Exeter - as seems their habit away - might get a draw, but Bury most certainly should despatch Accrington Stanley. The wobbles got to Chesterfield last week against John Coleman's side, but Bury are at home and with four out of five wins at Gigg Lane.

Cambridge United's failure to break down Altrincham in last Sunday's Blue Square Premier is a cautionary tale, but while Stanley can be stubborn in defence and will play with no fear, this is the chance for Bury's front six to prove why I have so admired their interweaving, interchanging style this season. At such a short price they are a tentative recommendation.

Striker Glynn Hurst has been praised by Alan Knill for waiting patiently for his chance, then netting four goals in three games before last Saturday's goalless draw at Gillingham. The strikers know there is no room for slacking. Andy Morrell must be itching for another chance.

Bury are very short to back - and if they don't manage victory then there is a very real chance last week's draw in Kent will be repeated in the play-off final.

A similar "sizing each other up" affair looks likely for Gillingham, at Rochdale. There is something strange occurring in Kent, with Gills boss Mark Stimson saying he might rest a couple of players and ask the rest if they want to play or keep themselves fresh for the play-offs.

That's a new psychological strategy on me, but it might work. The players hardly want to risk giving away home advantage in the play-off second leg do they?

The pair could face each other next Thursday, and will if Dagenham draw with Shrewsbury in what looks the distinctly possible scenario. The Daggers are more attack-minded but Shrewsbury are sure to throw everything at them. But I don't see it being enough.

Paul Stimpson might be tempted to say to his players: let's see how the Daggers deal with the new pressure of holding the play-off spot his Shrews have had all season. But the momentum is with John Still's side. They have four straight wins at Victoria Road, four wins from the last five games, four players who have scored more than 10 goals and the highest number of goals at home in the division.

Shrewsbury have two wins away all season, the most recent a fortnight ago courtesy of an own goal. The visitors are a big price lay at [3.5] (3.0 with regular bookies but you'll be lucky to get that on Betfair), but with the play-offs effectively starting now, if you want a bigger return go for the draw at [3.2] in a game in which they have to score.