League Two Betting Preview: Make or break March

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 11 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Feeding his achy breaky heart - singer Billy Ray Cyrus wields a sandwich

"Back John Sheridan’s men at [1.85] at home to Port Vale, whose boss Micky Adams outlined a few weeks ago what his side needed to do to reach the top seven."

When you eat a sandwich, the best bit is in the middle. In similar fashion, gamblers should not just look to the obvious games at top or bottom for their weekly bets, but to the play-off hopefuls, writes Ian Lamont.

Northampton have taken a fair while to come to the boil this season. Yet now they sit near the top of the form table, arguably at the best time of year to kick on.

March makes or breaks a season. It's no surprise to see the Cobblers pitched at the shortest price of the week, [1.4] to win at home to Darlington, so the bet might seem for those with deep pockets. But I can see Ade Akinfenwa adding to his impressive scoring ratio of five in six matches (four of those games won by Town).

Another form side are Chesterfield, perhaps a team to sneak up on the blindside. However, it should be no surprise if you like to measure a side by steady if discernable progression. This time last year they had pulled themselves up by their boot straps to within a play-off spot chance, averaging just short of two points per game up to mid March. They looked a solid enough side, but a succession of draws put paid to their top seven chances.

Perhaps it is telling that a team with one of the division's top scorers - Jack Lester with 20 - was not ultimately successful as a unit. Such a heavy reliance on one player is not always healthy. This season, Lester has not been as prominent, forcing the team to contribute more goals. The Spireites flirt with the automatic promotion berths.

Look to bet on John Sheridan's men at [1.85] at home to Port Vale, whose boss Micky Adams outlined a few weeks ago what his side needed to do to reach the top seven. I can't see it myself and even Adams was being more cautious this week after the Valiants beat Bradford at home to move within six points of the play-offs. But I do believe the former Brighton manager's strengths in this division are good enough for him to build for next season. Chesterfield are his benchmark.

Bury's recent form pushes their price out to [2.3] on them winning at Macclesfield. At some stages this season, the Shakers would have been odds-on to win at Moss Rose, like the last time the teams met, in early February, when Bury claimed their sixth straight win.

Alan Knill's side are still in third, despite a poor run - for a side chasing automatic promotion - of four consecutive draws, three without scoring. The latest came at home to desperate Darlington. The fans are on the back of Mike Jones, a 22-year-old winger.

The signs are not good for Saturday, where the Silkmen continue without Keith Alexander. This is the first home game after his death. It will be an emotional occasion where tributes will be paid to a popular man. Bury, who once employed Alexander as director of football, are probably not in the right frame of mind to make that [2.3] come off and can be layed.

Burton are another side making steady progress, but completely hit and miss this season. They have rarely strung together back to back wins this season, but they should be able to at home to Cheltenham. Paul Peschisoldo's side have a decent home record and will need to start putting a run together if they are to make an unlikely charge for seventh.

They will have few better chances than against the Robins, who are having a rotten season. To make matters worse, manager Mark Yates has been denied his Bristol City loan target John Akinde. Back Burton at [1.86].

Lamo's recommended bets:

Back Chesterfield to beat Port Vale at [1.85]
Back Northampton Town at [1.4] to beat Darlington
Back Burton to beat Cheltenham at [1.86]
Lay Bury at Macclesfield at [2.3]