League Two Betting Preview: Ill communication makes Grimsby value to unlock Valiants

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 04 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Many people back a side in form - and poor form is as good as any other when you have the ability to capitalise on Betfair, says Ian Lamont.

After two successful lays in the FA Cup last week it's time for more of the same.

I have a little rule not to back at even money. When I went through a period of fancying tips at that price some years ago, I won exactly 50 per cent of them, so there seemed little point. So it seems logical not to lay teams at that price, either.

Notts County and Port Vale can be found just either side of the mark.

Richard Butcher's broken foot has compounded the injury problems for the Magpies which are a large factor in Ian McParland's men collecting just three points (one win) from six league games. They also miss wide man Matt Hamshaw in particular.

By contrast, manager Sammy McIllroy has turned Saturday's visitors Morecambe into tough cookies. They were unbeaten in the league in November. They gave Cheltenham a good run for their money in the cup on Tuesday night and are well marshalled in the middle by Stuart Drummond and, at the back, former Betting.Betfair contributor David Artell. Draws at Bournemouth and Exeter can be matched, if not bettered, at County, who can be layed at [2.24].

Port Vale are just the other side of the line, at [1.95] as they host Grimsby. Dean Glover might have initially steadied the Valiants' ship after his caretaker manager role became permanent in October, but November reaped just four points and last week's cup exit to Macclesfield. As if Luke Rodgers' boots were not big enough to fill, there seems to be a lack of harmony - and communication - in the ranks, with keeper Joe Anyon revealing how players were failing to listen to him on the pitch and not talking to each other.

Vale's terrible home form means Grimsby have a chance to take points. That is despite, on the face of it, being no great shakes on the road. However, their away win (at Bury) and a home draw with Bournemouth have come in the last three games. There is hope for Mike Newell's men, and a little buzz created by suggestions that Robbie Fowler might soon be joining them. Loanees Rob Atkinson (Barnsley), a defender, and Jean-Paul Kalala (Oldham), a midfielder have scored - it's now the turn of striker Adam Proudlock (Darlington) to complete the progression of goals through the team by hitting the net.

A friend in the North who supports Dagenham was raving about their free-flowing style when John Still's side ventured into his neck of the woods at Morecambe, Chesterfield and Rochdale earlier in the season. But that was back in early October. Exiled from Essex, he doesn't see them at home and has been a bit more muted since. Dagenham have not picked up a point on the road since, despite their obvious firepower.

It seems about right that they are the longest odds of the weekend in the division, (jointly with Rotherham who face Shrewsbury) as the Daggers prepare for a trip to Bradford, who have one defeat in six.

The Bantams have backed up their push to second in the table by allowing Stuart McCall to bring in loan players to cover for injuries, which must be squeezing the budget. The midfield four from the start of the season - Joe Colbeck, Omar Daley, Paul McLaren and Lee Bullock - have all been hit. Wide man Steve Jones's loan move from Burnley should keep them ticking over for now and the home side can be backed at [1.8].

Exeter are the final selection. It was an ok kind of November in the league for Paul Tisdale's men and it can take teams a little time to get over a cup exit, be it at a side they didn't expect to beat or the likes of Curzon. A defeat to the only goal at Aldershot and two 1-1 draws since shows the recovery has been slow, but a home game against Lincoln, who have lost their last three on the road, is the perfect time to restart their League Two play-off challenge. Back Exeter, but make sure it is not at evens.

Recommendations:

Lay Port Vale [1.95]
Lay Notts County [2.24]
Back Bradford [1.8]
Back Exeter [2.1]