English Football League / Ian Lamont / 26 February 2009 /

Ian Lamont believes that Brentford v Bury is a more even match-up than the markets suggest. Meanwhile, can Rochdale keep up the momentum in their promotion push? And will John Coleman be donning a kilt? Best Bet: Rochdale to beat Grimsby @ [1.6].

Having money on doesn't always make a result matter more. The disciplined punter should not be betting on every game in a division and instead should pinpoint a key one each week to monitor.

Such is the game between Brentford and Bury. Brentford, after key wins against Shrewsbury and Rochdale, appear to have picked up many admirers among bookmakers. But they are not the heavy favourites that [1.95] suggests.

This is a much more even match-up. Brentford, with Jordan Rhodes forming a great strike partnership with Charlie MacDonald, could very well win, but this game could go any of the three ways and Bury, the form team in the division with 20 out of 24 points from eight games and a truly settled side, are not the [4.2] chance quoted by some. And whoever suggested to boss Alan Knill that, in Andy Bishop, they are a one-man team has not been reading my adulation of their front six!

For Bury, a point, if not a good performance, would underline their title credentials in what is not an easy run-in. The best bet here is the [7.4] on the Shakers in the divisional outrights to add to the previously advised [6.0] on Brentford.

An odds-on team is far more likely to prevail at Spotland. Manager Keith Hill admitted after the defeat to Brentford that perhaps he should have changed the team to rest some players. A few switches against Darlington in midweek did the trick, with a victory that keeps Rochdale's automatic promotion hopes bubbling nicely. Quite why he left out a good performer like Adam Le Fondre recently is a mystery, but when you bring in the likes of Nicky Adams from a higher level (Leicester City) on loan, something has to give. At [1.6] hungry Dale can see off a Grimsby side whose defensive frailties are all too plain, given their collapse from 2-0 up against Morecambe in midweek.

In-form Morecambe are an intriguing prospect at home to wobbling Wycombe. Even with 15 points from a possible last 24 it might be asking a lot for the Shrimps to actually storm their way to a play-off berth, but just three defeats at home suggest they will relish the challenge of facing Peter Taylor's side, who are a lay at [2.3]. With Michael Twiss back in form and favour, aided by new recruit Mark Duffy, the hosts have plenty with which to try to prize open Wycombe, who seem to be struggling for goals and inspiration again. Back under 2.5 goals at [1.68], too.

Talking of few goals, Kenny Arthur has a determined 90 minutes ahead of him at Aldershot. Boss John Coleman promised to wear a kilt if his custodian could keep three clean sheets in a row. The third attempt - after back-to-back blanks in August and November - will be made at the EBB, where the last 0-0 draw was last season.

The Shots have been struggling for victories themselves since their own stopper, Nicky Bull, picked up a groin injury which seems to have spread to his foot. Gary Waddock recently muttered something about Bull having developed an imbalance, which the Shots have surely done without him.

The hosts will be eyeing a sneaky narrow victory, like the one against Port Vale back in October to end a bad patch, against a side without a win in six. But the best bet here is again the under 2.5 goals. The Shots, with Lewis Chalmers recalled from Crawley Town such are their midfield problems, are only to be backed at [1.85] if you see Bull lined up for a return.

The weekend's value bet is [4.3] Bournemouth to win at Gillingham. It might seem a tall order for the Cherries to pick up only a third away win of the season against a team with a very good home record, but the visitors' need is greater and their form better. Cautious punters might want to lay Mark Stimson's side at [1.8], but I've analysed Bournemouth enough recently to want to risk the away win.

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