League Two Betting Preview: Get wise to draw at Morecambe

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 01 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Recommended Bets:

Morecambe to draw with Shrewsbury at [3.45]
Lay Hereford at home to Dagenham at [3.0]
Best bet Bournemouth to win at Port Vale at [2.18]
Value bet Accrington at [4.0] to win at Cheltenham

Steady Shrews build promotion challenge, Adams puts whole side on the list and Bournemouth thrive at the tip despite injuries. Ian Lamont picks the best League Two weekend bets...

Patterns. Look for them everywhere in life and they seem to add up.

Take Shrewsbury. Last year they had a goalkeeper, Luke Daniels, on loan from West Brom, for a season. Now, they have another loan keeper, Steve Phillips, for another month from Bristol Rovers to give injured Chris Neal time to fully recover. If you don't have a keeper, you don't have a team. So the logic of filling that specialist, somewhat lonely position with a transient solution might seem odd, but it seems to suit the Shrews.

Paul Simpson's men reached the play-off final last season, shaking their appalling away record just in time. Now, it appears, they are gaining a return on their travels much more akin to being promotion hopefuls: Look to win your home games and average a draw on your travels - resulting in two points a game - and that is title-pushing form in any division.

Certainly a draw looks the most likely outcome when they visit Morecambe. Summer signing Jake Robinson seems to have blended quite well with Dave Hibbert. Former-Brighton striker Robinson, 23, must be hoping to really establish himself and gain an unbroken run in the side to prove his credentials after a piecemeal existence in Sussex, from where he was twice loaned to Aldershot Town. Youth is clearly being given its chance, with Joss Labadie, who broke his foot in training in January during his first spell from West Brom, returning and making his mark with a few strikes from midfield, including a 30-yard free-kick on the opening day of the season.

The draw at Christie Park is tasty at [3.45], not least because Morecambe - again - seem draw specialists. Six of their games this season have ended all square and, unbeaten at home, they should prove a tough nut to crack for the Shrews, whose front men should meet resistance from experienced Jim Bentley and Stuart Drummond.

Given Morecambe's resilience, it was perhaps slightly optimistic of me to tip Dagenham to win there last week. Surprisingly they have been a little goal shy on their travels, even on short trips to places such as Barnet in midweek. They surely cannot be as poor as their shots tally (virtually non-existent) on Tuesday.

I think the way to play is the Betfair way and lay. Hereford have struggled to find their feet after relegation and should be layed at [3.0]. I say this after Marc Pugh scored twice - taking his tally to five - on Tuesday night against Bournemouth.

But regular readers will remember from last season that I am not a great truster of midweek results as a general form guide. Thus I have no hesitation in picking the Cherries to continue their good form at the top of the division by beating Port Vale. There are troubles at both clubs. Micky Adams has transfer listed his whole squad while the fans' expectations of improvement are still being stilted.

Meanwhile Eddie Howe's side, still under a transfer embargo, are pressing at the top despite a mounting injury crisis. With a now tiny squad, they have been forced to seek special permission to sign a player and could complete young Anthony Edgar's loan switch from West Ham before kick-off. Back Bournemouth at [2.18].

Accrington deserve to be the value bet of the week, especially at the price. I'm hoping midfielder Andrew Proctor can continue his purple patch in front of goal (three in four games) and Stanley can show the type of free-scoring spirit they enjoyed in a 5-3 win over Crewe last Friday to continue to prove the underdogs can win more often than expected. Accrington, [4.0] to win at Cheltenham, still very much carry that "unexpected" tag and are frequently underestimated. But they seem to have suffered little - even improved - after the departure of Paul Mullin to Morecambe.