League Two Betting Preview: Chester sink to new Lowe

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 09 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ian Lamont is experimenting with draws this Easter weekend but, with the possibility of Ryan Lowe between the sticks for Chester, he won't be dancing with the Devil at the Deva. Best bet: Rotherham at [1.72] to beat Notts County.

Don't put all your "x"s in one basket this Easter. A case for all 12 League Two games on Good Friday and Saturday to end level could be made, but that would be unprecedented in any division. The league is seriously tight, however, with many clubs still having much to play for - and their players are battling for contracts in a recession.

At average odds of [3.25] you might only need four draws to profit. I shall report back that experiment next week and also on how my narrowed down six draw chances fare. Just one, however, is recommended - Brentford v Exeter. The other possibles? Friday: Bury v Shrewsbury, and Morecambe v Bradford, Saturday: Barnet v Bournemouth, Chester v Macclesfield, Wycombe v Gillingham. Laying the six away sides - which I shall certainly do with Gillingham and Shrewsbury - is another way to look at it.

While, if pushed, Chester's game is a draw, I shall not be dancing with the devil at the Deva by betting. This game has suddenly gone from winnable on paper against Macclesfield to unplayable for gamblers. As I write, the hosts have no guarantee of a senior keeper to play behind Mark Wright's self-described "babies". Surely it cannot come to Ryan Lowe playing the whole game in goal - thus nullifying much of their attacking threat - but that has to be a possibility. Keith Alexander's visitors, with their own relegation worries, must also fancy their chances, but after five wins and a draw? There are too many unknowns and possible twists on the Chester side to judge, except to state that City will be back in non-league next season. Their relegation odds are [1.3].

Brentford and Exeter at [3.35] are tightly matched. I would sway towards the Bees if it were not for Charlie MacDonald's absence, to compound fellow strikers Nathan Elder and Jordan Rhodes' loss to injuries. In my assessment viewing MacDonald over the years, he is just about the reliable 20-goal a season man. But Andy Scott's solid side are no one-man band. Additionally, the manager showed great skills - and timing - in the loan market just before the deadline to capture Damian Spencer and Billy Clarke.

Exeter are more than capable of gaining a point. Paul Tisdale is a wily young manager, none more so than in acquiring Stuart Fleetwood. After an outstanding season at Forest Green last season, he is relishing being the foil for the more established Adam Stansfield.

I feel certain Brentford can finish the job by going up, but as champions? There has to be a doubt. The Bees were unlucky not to hold on for victory at Bradford, but are four games without a win. "Go green" on my title portfolio. I tipped Brentford at [6.4] and Bury at [7.4]. At minimum stakes £2, you can now lay Brentford at [1.4], cut your profit by £2.8 to potentially win £7, making money whoever wins the league, even if Bury don't.

Lay another £2 - winning five more - if you feel Wycombe will pinch top spot. Another striker, John Akinde, with four goals in five games, has reignited Peter Taylor's side just at the right time. It is strange that, after the loan window has shut, the Chairboys might be able to extend his month's loan for the season. But the player and club's joint rejuvenation is enough to tip the delicate balance towards laying visitors Gillingham. Unlike their hosts, Mark Stimson's men have faltered just at the wrong time and have a tough run-in against promotion-vying sides, as well as several players nursing knocks. At [3.45] the lay is a big risk, but as 'er indoors says, if you're certain they won't win... (and she knows more than she'll admit).

Finally, while it still bemuses me that so many teams each week are odds-on at home in this league - one out of four won last week, if you could get Exeter below evens - one stands out this week. Rotherham at home to Notts County. Of all the teams, Rotherham will be looking to next season's League Two with most relief. Without their points deduction, they would be title hopefuls. Reuben Reid, aged 20, has really found his feet with 17 goals and the Magpies from Notts County won't be nicking anything from this one. Back at [1.72].