English Football League / Ian Lamont / 14 January 2010 /

Ian Lamont selects the best bets from the weekend's fourth tier action and offers a timely update on which teams might struggle to maintain their league status this season...

With the weather again likely to impact the weekend's games, it is worth looking at some of the long-term markets in League Two, as well as one or two matches on Saturday.

Firstly, the relegation market. I consider Darlington to be gone, but unless you are a banker willing to risk your bonus, [1.08] is not worth the money.

The four teams I consider to be most at risk of gurgling down the plughole too - Grimsby, Lincoln, Cheltenham and Barnet - all have young managers in their first football league managerships. When three stay up, their boards will be boasting about the success of fresh talent, even though it will be by default. In any case, promotion is the real measure of success.

Mark Yates is the only one with any experience - four years at Kidderminster - and I shall look to lay Cheltenham for the drop at [4.5]. Lost games over Christmas might have hit revenue and made the chairman wait until after the next game to ponder whether funds can be found to strengthen, but if Yates can get the best out of Justin Richards this time around - the pair crossed paths at Kiddy - then they should have no worries.

The current price on Grimsby, [1.61], is too short with 20-odd games to go. Backers should look for [2.7] because if you are going to play this market you would hope the Mariners would make a go of it. Their propensity for draws recently gives them a base for Neil Woods to work with, even if their run after this Saturday's home game with Cheltenham might make climbing Everest seem like a divet (Rotherham and Aldershot away and Notts County home and away). Portsmouth's Paris Cowan-Hall signing for a month, and Hull's Nicky Featherstone rejoining on loan, give them a chance of landing the [2.72] on a home win against the Robins.

Lincoln should be about [4.5] for relegation, which I would lay. Boss Chris Sutton has had enough time to assess what is a relatively poor squad and now pick a settled side to do the job of staying up. He's nobody's fool. As a player he refused to "prove himself" and play for the pointless England B side, and negotiated his own multi-million transfer deals without an agent: he has strength of mind and character.

The team on a slippery slope are Barnet - just seven points in 10 games after a great start to the season. Lincoln should have enough to take at least a point from them at Underhill this weekend. Twelve months ago, Ian Hendon was appointed, the "new broom" theory arguably helping them stay up. They lack that freshness now. Lay them at [2.2] against Lincoln and take, as a value bet, the [6.2] on them to go down.

Given their form on the road over 17 months, it seems odd to be talking about Aldershot being odds-on to win away. But I am finding it impossible to resist the [1.9] on victory at Darlington, who have only scored four goals at home. Some gripe that new boss Kevin Dillon has brought a more direct style to the Shots and results have ranged from the very good, a 5-2 win at Dagenham, to their very bad 6-1 mauling at Burton in their 1,000th game as a reformed club. However, they are one of the division's form sides and are also worth a speculative punt in the promotion market. Look for [5.0].

Chesterfield's form - three points from six games - means they are too short at [2.0] at home to underestimated Torquay, second only to Rochdale on form. The outright win for the Gulls at Saltergate is a tempting [4.3], with winger Chris Zebroski eager to impress after turning a loan from Wycombe into a permanent deal, but to cover the draw, lay the home side.

Lamo's best bets:

Relegation:
Value bet: Back Barnet @ [6.2]
Lay Cheltenham and Lincoln, both @ [4.5]

Promotion:
Back Aldershot @ [5.0]

Weekend games:
Lay Chesterfield at home to Torquay [2.0]
Lay Barnet at home to Lincoln @ [2.2]
Back Aldershot at Darlington @ [1.9]

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