League Two Betting Preview: Back the Spireites to buck the odds-on losing trend

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 22 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

There were seven odds-on losers in League Two last weekend, surely that can't happen again says Ian Lamont.

Last week there were seven home odds-on favourites and only one came in. That had something to do with a remarkable seven draws. Those two sentences tell us two things about the division: it is very tight and even the bookies are ahead of themselves if they think they can start to call it correctly.

Of course, based on logic, there were good reasons behind the layers going short prices on home wins for Aldershot, Bradford, Brentford, Darlington, Rochdale, Rotherham and Wycombe. But since when has logic had anything to do with football? Its unpredictable nature and all the variables who among the chosen 22 on the pitch will have a good or a bad day is why we love it so.

The very unfathomable nature of an "anybody beats anybody" league, as Wycombe boss Peter Taylor put it after losing at home to Grimsby, "is why nobody wins the Pools". Gamblers have noted in the past how often bottom beats top Peter - and the Mariners would be bottom if not for other teams' points deductions. While it seems inconceivable that a side that look so destined to be champions could lose two on the trot, it is always possible, if only for another spurious statistic. I have noted a trend over the years that a manager who is appointed as caretaker does not necessarily win his next game, but when the caretaker gets the role full-time his team at least doesn't lose the next match.

In a world without logic, laugh at this spurious statistic at your peril. It worked at levels as variant as Sunderland and Weymouth recently and, more pertinently, in League Two when temporary boss Dean Glover became permanent at Port Vale back in October.

With Eddie Howe installed as Bournemouth manager until the end of the season - a nod to permanence - there is probably a psychology thesis to be done on the new broom theory in football which thus makes Wycombe a lay at [2.2]. There are logical - if you can stomach them - reasons to think Bournemouth can earn at least a point, or that Wycombe can drop some more.

The Cherries, who have lost the last four, were unbeaten in five of six towards the end of last year and have acquired a good young defender in the form of Crystal Palace's Rhoys Wiggins on loan to boost what has always looked a tough cause to stay up. They could even re-sign Steve Fletcher from Crawley. Bournemouth have also won two of the last four at home and drawn another. Conceding just nine goals at home is the equal fourth best record in the division. As for Wycombe, by their own high standards the victories have dried up a little, with one win in four since Christmas.

It's back to normal with the layers this week only trying to steer us to two odds-on "certainties". The one that should be a home winner is Chesterfield at [1.84] against Morecambe. The Spireites are on a decent run and seem to be able to manage without Jamie Ward, departed for Sheffield United, others on the scoresheet at Chester last weekend. Morecambe don't look to be in any shape as Chesterfield try to make further in-roads towards the play-offs.

If there is one bet I am keen on this weekend it is Luton to draw with Bradford at [3.25]. Both sides have drawn five of their last eight games. It should be remembered that Luton are nowhere near bottom on points earned, while Bradford's propensity for draws undermines their title ambitions, if not their automatic promotion hopes.

Lastly, if there is one side to lose this weekend, it is surely Port Vale. Two wins in 11 games is desperate form - and all Glover can think to criticise is the concentration levels. Meanwhile, Notts County - and Delroy Facey at last - appear to be finding a bit of spark. That Jamie Clapham has extended his contract is good news, while Matt Hanshaw offers skill wide out to supply Facey, who against Sutton in the FA Cup first round looked like he could have played for weeks without scoring. That he continued to do until netting three in four games, including one to draw with Brentford last weekend. Having missed the stirring fightback at Aldershot in midweek with a calf injury, Facey will be raring to get involved again as the Magpies show some battling qualities. Climb aboard at [2.1].

Recommendations:

Notts County to beat Port Vale [2.1]