League Two Betting Preview: Imps target third win on the spin

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 21 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

"A third win on the spin this weekend for Lincoln seems a generous wager at [2.7] to beat Bradford City."

Stuart McCall has been bemoaning his side's bad luck and Ian Lamont doesn't expect things to get any better for the Bantams against Lincoln this weekend.

Stick or twist? The transfer window seems like a game of cards, with high stakes: promotion or staying up for the winners; disappointment, including relegation, for the losers.

Do you add to your squad? A new character could lift a dressing room, or upset a delicate balance because one player loses his place and causes trouble. Or do you stick with the "long-term" ethos that suggests successful sides have been together for a long time?
Whichever way you view it, now is when we see the whites of managers' eyes. Do they show fear or fortitude?

In Chris Sutton's case, I am still on the side of strength. Centre-back Janos Kovacs was one of the Imps' most consistent players last season, yet now he is on the transfer list. A big call for a club on the ropes - despite two wins on the trot they are far from safe near the bottom.

The flip side is that Nathan Baker, Adam Watts and Moses Swaibu have been in excellent form, keeping Kovacs out - and times are hard: he can go if the price is right. It shows great confidence by Sutton that his squad can afford to be cut by one.

A third win on the spin might follow this weekend. The hosts seem a generous wager at [2.7] to beat Bradford City. Stuart McCall cursed the defeated Bantams' "luck" for the umpteenth time at Bury on Tuesday - his side's fourth loss in six games. He claimed he has been "unable to have a pop" at his players for the whole season, because all they have lacked is serendipity's approval.

Nonsense. The luck excuse washes once, maybe twice. A side can toil and display as much energy as it likes, but if no end product converts the periods of dominance you have to question the fundamentals. If McCall feels he can't fault his players, then their league position indicates they are not up to the mark.

Bury, meanwhile, still without the mercurial Andy Bishop, appear to have sorted themselves out. Solid enough at the back, the Shakers have always had good movers in midfield but had a slow start after last year's play-off disappointment. Third is just the start for Alan Knill's in-form men.

Even at an odds-on [1.74], the price is not to be sniffed at and worth the investment against Hereford, where John Trewick is pondering how many players he should bring in after winger Jonny Godsmark and midfielders Nathaniel Wedderburn and Jordon Mutch returned to their Premier League clubs.

Recruit large numbers of newbies and you don't need to worry about upset applecarts, because the team's whole dynamic changes. The Bulls could sign a decent player between now and Saturday who scores a debut winner - it often happens - to thwart the gimme home win of the weekend. Right now, they are too disjointed to be looking at anything other than defeat.

Of three possible home wins, Shrewsbury are the best odds. Morecambe, [2.0] in the battle of the out of form sides, are worth avoiding at home to Barnet, while Northampton have a strong chance of continuing their fine form with a victory at home to Chesterfield at [1.75].

The Shrews should be taken at [2.44] to beat Dagenham, who remain poor on the road. However, the true value bet of the weekend is Grimsby. If they are going to escape the drop, it is about time they turned a penchant for draws into victories.

Winger Michael Coulson will stay until the end of the season and defender Paul Linwood will not serve a one-game ban after a date change within the rules for this season. If Grimsby do pull off the win at [7.6] away to Rotherham, fans might allow boss Neil Woods to continue his steady progress and put aside the whispering campaign to replace him with Russell Slade. Well, for one week, anyway.

Lamo's selected bets:

Grimsby to win at Rotherham at [7.6]
Best bet: Bury to beat Hereford at [1.74]
Lincoln to beat Bradford at [2.66]
Shrewsbury to beat Dagenham at [2.44]
Northampton at [1.75] to beat Chesterfield