League Two Betting Preview: Stan the man?

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 08 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Recommended bets:
Back Bury at [1.96] to beat Northampton;
Lay Aldershot at home to Morecambe at [2.1];
Value bet: lay Dagenham at [1.4] at home to Darlington, add over 2.5 goals at [2.05]

If Steve Staunton is as tenacious as a manager as he was as a player, then Darlington will soon buck their ideas up says, Ian Lamont. Seasoned football punters know that it's rarely that simple but that doesn't mean the 'new broom' theory won't come into play at Dagenham on Saturday...

The reporter in me likes posing questions but a quarter of the way into the season, answers to the League Two riddle are few. Could there be a clean sweep of home victories, can Steve Staunton pull off a minor miracle and win his first game in charge of Darlington - and what has changed Bury's fortunes?

The way the division is shaping up, it is no surprise at least six home teams are odds-on and all 12 are favourites. But since when has football been that obvious? Full cards of home wins in a division are like £5 coins: rare and commemorative. The odds are about 2,500-1, against the mathematical probability of 1 in 531441. So short as to tell gamblers to seek value lays.

First port of call is Aldershot Town. I'll ignore the rule: don't bet against your own side when you don't fancy them to win. The memory of Michael Twiss bothering Aldershot's back four in non-league days still chills. The 31-year-old might not be the force he was, but they have forwards with guile in Phil Jevons and Paul Mullin to dent the charge of Gary Waddock's men. Morecambe's resilience is stubborn, given they have drawn eight of 11 matches.

There is plenty to like about the Shots, lanky marauder Marvin Morgan for one. They have signed a couple of teenagers on loan - Dean Parrett (Spurs) and Antonio German (QPR) - to freshen the squad, but the Shots always seem to concede.

The [3.4] on level pegging will tempt draw backers, but I prefer to lay the hosts at [2.1].

The Shots were seven unbeaten before losing at Lincoln last Saturday, giving boss Chris Sutton a debut win. It is uncanny how many times a new manager conjures a debut victory. It happens too often to ignore. Rotherham's Ronnie Moore, returning after Mark Robins left for Barnsley, also pulled off the trick at Crewe last weekend. A couple of years ago Alex McLeish's first game with Birmingham, away at Tottenham, resulted in a victory at [7.0]. Bottom club Darlington are pushing double figures - [8.6] as I write - to triumph for Steve Staunton at Dagenham.

If the former Liverpool and Ireland player can muster the tenacity he did as a player, his new charges will have their ears sufficiently bashed to buck up their ideas. The Quakers are still reeling from losing most of their players in the summer, having had the stuffing knocked out of their season by going into administration last term.

At [1.4] laying Darlington's hosts Dagenham seems the inexpensive way to play. As ever, there are plenty of striking reasons to like John Still's side, but this could be the perfect time to play them. The players will surely be thinking playing the club rooted to the bottom at Victoria Road is perfect way to rekindle their season after scoring just three times in four games, and winning twice in six.

Perhaps the freshness of a little youth has kick-started Bury's season. Well, a big youth, actually, in the form of 6ft 4in striker Tom Elliott, a 20-year-old on loan from Leeds, who famously made his debut at 15 for the Yorkshire side.

After three wins and a draw, the Shakers might still be some way off the title pace, but it is uncanny that Elliott's involvement began when Bury's recent run began at Port Vale. With Ryan Lowe and Andy Bishop adding the experience up front, Alan Knill's men are the one team I will be backing odds-on at [1.96]. Ian Sampson might have been installed as Northampton manager until the end of the season, but as he has been caretaker for a month he hardly fits the "new broom" theory that sees so many new bosses win. They might make a good fist of it, though, so add over 2.5 goals at [2.05].