English Football League / Ian Lamont / 24 September 2009 /

Ian Lamont talks us through the current situation at Notts County, that at times resembles a circus, and digs out the best bets for the weekend's matches in League Two.

It would be lovely to write about a division without any "false" factors - no points deductions, no whales in fish tanks, nobody blinded by new money into believing a team is a big fish that should swallow up the rest on the way to promotion.

Such distractions are best avoided when sizing up bets. Luton, for example, were a non-betting proposition for most of last season because minus 30 points made it far too unlikely survival could be achieved. This season, the circus surrounding Notts County make them impossible to assess.

Sven Goran Eriksson's presence is a double edged sword in this alleged big tent. Nobody really knows who the true ringmaster is, on or off the pitch (the identity of the owners is a mystery) and manager Ian McParland's job comes under scrutiny at the slightest hint of a bad run. This week, the board dared to comment on his position. It is always under review, they said. Well, the very fact they felt obliged to answer questions about it is a bad sign and will sharpen cynics' knives. A vote of confidence like that rarely ends in the manager staying.

In addition, the highest paid trapeze artist, Sol Campbell, has quit after just one game. That was the final straw for me. I can't trust, on a weekly basis, whether I'm going to be assessing polished lion tamer acts or clowns with only half their faces painted. They certainly can't be trusted at the short-priced [1.6] at home to beat Port Vale. The best I can do for a value bet - and it really is an outside chance even though the Valiants are improving - is the [7.0] on an away win. I shall lay the Magpies and wait until they go longer than the [7.0] lay I took on them in the title outright market. I don't think it will be long before I can "go green" by backing them back.

There is much more to League Two than the nouveau riche. Will Antwi, for example. The defender I remember marauding down the wing (occasionally) at Aldershot Town is thoroughly enjoying himself at Dagenham. That is thanks to John Still's astute recognition of a fine player who has had a hard time, in Antwi's case four years at Wycombe Wanderers where he played less than 50 times.

At 26 and with an unfulfilled league career so far, he might just be that solid and still hungry defensive addition that Dagenham lacked last season as they narrowly failed to reach the play-offs. There is nothing wrong with the Daggers going forward, and with a huge positive goal difference at home they should be taken to inflict defeat on Morecambe at [1.7].

I like Morecambe. They are making steady progress after promotion to the League in 2007. Midfielder Stuart Drummond, in his second spell, is just shy of 300 appearances. Striker Paul Mullin adds competition in a gently evolving side. They show ambition by taking proven performers at this level, Ian Craney and Phil Jevons, on loan from Huddersfield. They are five games unbeaten, four of them draws, but, in all, Dagenham at home should have too much firepower in Benson, Nurse, et al.

Shrewsbury might have spent big (£180,000) 15 months ago on Grant Holt, but they are hardly any sort of riche. This year, with Holt departed to Norwich, they are relying on a far less expensive recruit, Dave Hibbert. After signing from Preston two summers ago, the 23-year-old is really starting to shine. Six league goals this campaign have delighted fans who will probably witness him bag another at home to Northampton. Take the [1.9] on a home win.

They say a bit of luck can kick-start a season, but I'm not sure enough about whether Bury have really turned the corner to back them at odds-on at home - even against a poor side like Lincoln and a flukey goal causing a win last weekend.

However, Bournemouth have kicked on remarkably well after that points deduction last term. Eddie Howe's side have only conceded once at home this term. With confidence clearly high and Brett Pitman striking freely they should account for Burton at [1.7].

Lay Notts County @ [1.6] at home to Port Vale
Back Dagenham @ [1.7] to beat Morecambe
Best bet back Shrewsbury @ [1.9] to beat Northampton
Back Bournemouth @ [1.7] to beat Burton

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