League Two Betting: Not so Grim if Mariners come good

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 29 April 2010 / Leave a Comment

Strutting his stuff: Lee Peacock has been instrumental in Grimsby's revival since arriving in January

"Lee Peacock has been a boon for Grimsby having joined them in January. His captaincy is partly responsible for Grimsby’s late rally. Now we see the whites of players’ eyes and what managers deem a key element in football – character.
Grimsby are marginally shorter to win than at the start of the week, but should still be backed at [1.92]."

Ian Lamont talks us through the best bets on the penultimate day of the League Two season, including why a Lee Peacock-inspired Grimsby can take all three points.

Occasionally I have tipped against Aldershot Town and they have won, cementing the tipster's rule that you should not back against your own side publicly. It was tempting to tip against them until they won the title!

On similar lines, many people believe a new manager wins his first game. There is much circumstantial evidence to support the theory. Will anybody ever change the manager every week to try to win a league I wonder?

The hypothesis turned into a Medusa-style problem, on learning that Barnet have buckled and sacked boss Ian Hendon, just as I decided to back Grimsby to win this weekend.

For me, it is one or tother for relegation. Paul Fairclough, who took the Bees back into the Football League, reverts to manager.

Some months ago I tipped Barnet for relegation and got [12.0] on a decent outside chance should the Marines get their act together and actually start winning, rather than just drawing. Barnet can still be backed at [3.5], a price I shall look to lay for a guaranteed profit.

Since the turn of the year, Barnet have won just four of 22 games (and picked up three points from the last seven games), while Grimsby have taken victory in four of their last eight matches.

The Mariners' momentum points to a home win - with Hendon saying his boys had to "grow up fast". With the teams playing each other, Barnet just need a point, but leaving with nothing means a nailbiter at home to Rochdale next week.

Lee Peacock has been a boon for Grimsby having joined them in January. His captaincy is partly responsible for Grimsby's late rally. Now we see the whites of players' eyes and what managers deem a key element in football - character.

Grimsby are marginally shorter to win than at the start of the week, but should still be backed at [1.92].

Talking of momentum, Port Vale have reached the play-off places for the first time this season on the back of a fantastic 21 points from 10 games. Micky Adams set out to win all three final games and, having disposed of Notts County 2-1 last Saturday, he will not fear Bournemouth at Dean Court.

Assistant manager Geoff Horsfield has warned that some sportsmen freeze on the big occasion - another reference to character. The test is now to retain their top seven place when people are suddenly noticing them.

I had my eye on Vale for next season, with Adams' record at this level being very good. Plucking a point against the Cherries won't be easy. Bournemouth will want to ensure a celebratory finish, having gained promotion, in their last home game, with talismatic Steve Fletcher leading from the front. Laying the home side at [2.5], to cover the expected draw, seems most sensible.

Plenty of games - like on non-league's final day last week - see the layers taking no chances on teams who need to win, it seems. Backing Aldershot, [1.44] to beat Lincoln, Dagenham [1.65] to defeat Hereford and Rotherham [1.61] to beat Crewe are done at backers' peril. For example, I fancy the draw at Dagenham.

One team worth backing, however, are another side in form, Morecambe, away at stuttering Shrewsbury. The Shrimpers practically saw off Dagenham's play-off bid and Paul Simpson's side's chances are gone. Take the [2.28].

Torquay, with 16 points from six games, can reward value bet seekers. Paul Buckle's side seem to have finally found their feet. In mentioning Aldershot's woeful performance in defeat to them the other week, it should be noted how good the Devon side were, Elliott Benyon, a pocket dynamo up front and two wide men to set him up. Bury, therefore, are no gimme to win at Gigg Lane, despite needing victory to cement a play-off berth. At [1.72] they are on my lay list, with [5.5] on the outright away win the bet for long-shot lovers.

Best bet

Grimsby to beat Barnet at [1.92]

Others

Lay Bournemouth at [2.5] at home to Port Vale
Back Morecambe at [2.28] to win at Shrewsbury
Back Torquay to win at Bury at [5.5]