League Two Betting: Looking to the form table to find the answers

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 12 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ian Lamont ignores Cheltenham fever to compile a form table that should go some way to help us find some winning bets for this weekend's League Two action. Best bet: Grimsby to win at Chester at [2.74].

The league table never lies. Of course, people mean at the end of the season. But if you want to give yourself an edge as a gambler in the middle of the season you want to take a good cross-section of recent events and devise your own table.

This week I've put my blinkers on in order to avoid the Cheltenham Festival and compose a League Two form guide from January 1, a date that, hailing fresh starts, seems appropriate.

Neatly, all clubs have now played at least 10 games, a cut-off point that I have included as a secondary marker in this study and something I consider a minimum. With the latest game on the right, I have listed the basics and added a / between months.

It's a simple form guide, not even taking in away wins (which Shrewsbury still can't do), strength of opposition, etc so feel free to adjust it to a six-game guide or points per game ratio or whatever. However you look at it, pitching it up against the league table is key.

It confirms Wycombe have faded fast compared to their title rivals, Bradford are off the boil, Darlington are in free-fall, as are Chester, Grimsby, Port Vale and Aldershot, with only the latter two's mid-table position protecting them - at the moment - from the relegation soup. Meanwhile Barnet, defying my tip in January for them to go down, have stolen a march on their relegation rivals - Bournemouth excepted - and Morecambe and Chesterfield are very much in the ascendancy with the aforementioned Cherries.

Using the table, the [1.9] on Chesterfield to win at home to Dagenham looks the one to be on. Danny Gritton seems to be fitting nicely alongside Jack Lester at Saltergate, and an average of 2pts per game is never to be sniffed at, especially when Lee Richardson's side beat their opponents on Wednesday night, Grimsby, who were fighting for their livelihoods. The home side still harbour play-off ambitions. Dagenham, despite being unbeaten away from home since November, mostly with draws, are as boss John Still says, lacking confidence.

Grimsby, meanwhile, are my chance bet of the weekend. Some bookies can't split them and Chester, and some even started the week as long as [2.8] - which Betfair almost matches now - about the Mariners to snatch victory at the Deva, where Mark Wright is only too happy to outline the serious problems with his team in public.

It's an odd psychology, criticising his team as not good enough when he knows he isn't going to get any replacements and naming the five positions he wants better cover for. With key central midfielder Damien Mozika still struggling with a hamstring injury, the visitors' Adam Proudlock and the wonderfully named Jean Louis Akpa-Akpro ought to be able to create more chances than City can handle.

Mike Newell's men did win 5-1 last week against Lincoln, which brings me to a lay at [2.5] on Peter Jackson's side at home to Bury, whose narrow defeats to Brentford and Chesterfield were redeemed by victory over Rochdale, and can be ironed into an overall winning trend. I don't need to repeat my eulogies to Bury's forward rovings, but Lincoln have looked decidedly inconsistent, draw more than their fair share at home and have little to play for in mid-table. Meanwhile, Alan Knill has hailed the "real belief" in his team that they can gain automatic promotion.

Before I compiled this table I strongly fancied Rochdale against Rotherham for a draw - high scoring, given their multiple net busters. The 10-game record confirms a close match-up. If Rochdale's defeat to Bury can be forgiven, the one before at Barnet can also be excused, two bad results making a blip for Dale. Keith Hill outlined a desire for seven wins from the final 11 games before the midweek triumph over Bradford, but even Adam Le Fondre and Lee McEvilly might struggle to outfire Rotherham's confident strike force after that 5-1 win at Chester. Rochdale, strong at home, have doubts over Ciaran Toner (Achilles), Gary Jones (groin) in central midfield. The [3.55] is the way to play this one.