League Two Betting: Injury-plagued Lincoln are worth taking on

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 19 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Former Blackburn and Celtic star Chris Sutton is having his first taste of management at Lincoln but injuries have stalled their progress.

"Injuries also make me seriously wary of Lincoln’s short price of [2.08] to beat bottom club Grimsby. On the one hand the doomsayers might point to the Imps having 11 absentees this weekend, but then half of those have not played in weeks. Perhaps that is why Chris Sutton’s men have been doing so badly."

Ian Lamont looks ahead to the weekend's fixtures in League Two where Chris Sutton's Lincoln have half their first team out injured and are worth opposing at home to Grimsby. Plus the best of the rest from the other action.

I am mindful of the saying "lightning never strikes twice" - a full week ahead of Charlton's conquerors Northwich hosting another Football League side in Lincoln City.
I am thinking of Rochdale's eye-catching 4-0 win at Bournemouth at the end of October as I consider whether they can pull off another three points at Victoria Road this weekend.

With hosts Dagenham strengthening their squad impressively in the past few days, the chances of an away win seem slim in this top three clash.

If John Still's leaders can get the best out of Gillingham's Adam Miller in his month on loan, they have a real chance of still being top by Christmas. Not to mention that they have bolstered their defensive line-up by signing full-back Nana Ofori-Twumasi on a similar deal. He must have something about him if he is registered to Chelsea.

The Daggers' defence has always been the worry - but mainly away from home. The word fortress is overused in football, but at home they tend to blitz allcomers with their multiple goal threat. Resilient Morecambe and Port Vale have been the only sides to pinch points there this term.

Dagenham, unbeaten in six league games, face visitors whose form yo-yos between defeats and stunning victories like that against the Cherries, which has led to them being joint top scorers - with Crewe - in the League away from home.

Keith Hill's men are short of numbers. Captain Gary Jones, Adam Rundle, Joe Thompson and Will Buckley are injured, loanees Simon Whaley (Norwich) and Dale Stephens (Oldham) are back at their parent clubs and just 14 players trained this week, including suspended Nathan Stanton and Cairan Toner, who is nowhere near fully fit. To me those factors point to value in Dagenham's win price of [2.2].

Injuries also make me seriously wary of Lincoln's short price of [2.08] to beat bottom club Grimsby. On the one hand the doomsayers might point to the Imps having 11 absentees this weekend, but then half of those have not played in weeks. Perhaps that is why Chris Sutton's men have been doing so badly. The arrival of right winger Michael Gordon from Ryman Division One South Merstham has been a blessing. He has league experience with Wimbledon, but how often do new faces sparkle on their debut - as man of the match Gordon did against Cheltenham - before floundering?

The fact that his crosses don't always find any particular target still puts him in the top third of his new side, my sources in Lincolnshire tell me, so maybe he will shine again. However, the price should have layers feathering their nests. A game as dour as Grimsby's 0-0 snore at Northampton Town is surely in prospect and the managerless Mariners can hope to take a point. Back under 2.5 goals at [1.8].

Elsewhere I am a wee bit baffled by Macclesfield boss Keith Alexander leaving John Rooney - younger brother of You Know Who - on the bench last weekend because of "interest" in the 18-year-old. Apparently higher level clubs are courting a forward who has, it has to be said, been impressing. But even a run of half-decent form (for the Silkmen) cannot be used as an excuse to leave out your best player if you want to keep up that form, even if you have no current cash to improve whilst his sale could bolster the squad in the long-term.

That attitude will also play into Bournemouth's already decent hand and nice price at [2.2] to prove that Rochdale defeat a blip. A strong away record with only six goals conceded can be a building block. With a winding up petition seen off, talismatic targetman Steve Fletcher says the players must follow the board's lead by bringing stability. Victory at Moss Rose would do nicely as Eddie Howe's men continue to gain momentum at the right end of the division.

Best bet:

Bournemouth at [2.2] to win at Macclesfield
Lay Lincoln at home to Grimsby at [2.1] and back under 2.5 goals at [1.8]
Back Dagenham at home to Rochdale at [2.2]