League Two Betting: Hype doesn't justify price of Sven's Holy Grail

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 30 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Notts County could prove far more profitable (if indeed that is the aim) by being promoted three divisions than a low-rated Premiership club that really is never going to challenge the big four."

As he looks forward to the new season, Betting.Betfair's resident League Two expert Ian Lamont explains why he believes Notts County are a lay for promotion and why the signing of a certain full-back is likely to keep the Shots up...

Stop, this is getting silly!" shouts the policeman at the end of a Monty Python film.
Sven-Goran Eriksson's arrival at Notts Bounty - as dubbed by the tabloids - prompts this quotation from The Holy Grail.

Even the title is apt, since Sven wants to take County to The Holy Grail of the top flight in five years. That's about how long it can take to become an overnight success, even - or perhaps especially - if you shell out £2million a year to a director of football for his expertise on a division he knows nothing about. It has to be a PR stunt. Either that, or someone has a serious poker hand hold over the former England manager.

For me, the only thing Sven's and his mystery backers' arrival at Meadow Lane guarantees is pressure on boss Ian McParland. "First manager to depart" backers will sharpen claws, especially if County don't have a blistering start to the season.

Now, I will never scoff at ambition. There is certainly more mileage for cash rich investors in any industry in buying a "bargain basement" company. County could prove far more profitable (if indeed that is the aim) by being promoted three divisions than if you bought a low-rated Premiership club that really is never going to challenge the big four.

Meadow Lane has seen top-flight football and has a potentially large fanbase.
But when you consider that in early June County were [33.0] for the League Two title and are now [6.6], it has far more to do with a sackload of cash being plunged into a dream - both at the club and at the bookies - than on-field transformation.

McParland has added Luke Rodgers and Lee Hughes. Fair enough, he always said he needed goalscorers. They will be decent, but not superstars. It seems significant they were free transfers, however, when Sven's salary could surely be better spent if County were to justify the price plunge. I expect an improvement on last term, but at this point the hype and signings don't justify the price. Lay them at [6.6] and seek value elsewhere.

The title

For portfolio builders like myself, the fuss over County nicely deflects attention from the obvious favourites, Rotherham. I hate obvious favourites. Stevenage have been thus in the Conference for years in July. They are still in the Conference.

Mark Robins' Millers were one of the leading point scorers last season, but began on minus 17. Strikers Kevin Ellison and Tom Pope have been added, quite sensibly if Reuben Reid wants out. The [8.8] shots are cautiously on my shortlist but I'm holding out for double figures.

I look for teams that have a small but quality squad and a bunch of players that have mostly been together for a while. Bury fit the bill at [15.5]. A few tweaks to the squad should help them kick on from their narrow play-off defeat, with Ryan Lowe, a punchy replacement for Glynn Hurst. Gunning to find the net more often than in a poor City team last year, he'll be hungry to take his chance with Andy Bishop out for six weeks.

Shrewsbury are somewhat disrupted by Grant Holt's exit to Norwich, so they need a few weeks watching in proper battle before being considered.

To be promoted

Similarly to Bury, Torquay are not much changed. Furthermore, being on a limb of the country your players either live locally and bond with each other, or they travel from miles to training and end up not working well together.

Exeter, last season, benefited from their unity and familiarity, as did Torquay in the Conference. I reckon the Gulls can follow their neighbours' lead and reach at least a play-off spot that offers that promotion lottery. Back at [8.2].

Relegation

Sorry romance fans, but the layers are right - Stanley are going down. The takeover at Accrington is of the type that a local businessman, already known to the board, wants a bigger say for his six-figure input (small change by Notts County standards). Most of that will have to go on ground improvements. Back them for the drop at [4.1].

If you feel that's too short, lay Aldershot Town at [4.2]. Losing keeper Nicki Bull suddenly is a bit of a worry, but something has been simmering on that score for a couple of years and boss Gary Waddock has replaced him quickly with Clark Masters. Furthermore, the Shots manager finally seems to have solved his full-back problems by signing former Betting.Betfair writer Ben Herd. They'll stay up for sure, now.

Recommendations:

Title winners market 09/10
Lay Notts County [7.0]
Back Bury at [15.5]
Promotion 2009-10

Back Torquay at [8.2]

Relegation

Back Accrington at [4.0]
Lay Aldershot at [4.2]