League Two Betting: Heavy defeat has done us Exeter backers a favour

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 30 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Ian Lamont has seen some strange happenings down in the westcountry this Halloween week - and now he'lll try to make it pay in his League Two betting preview.

Friday night might be fright night for Halloween, but the freakiness began early during the midweek football matches. I always find that a Tuesday or Wednesday night game throws up strange goings ons and there was clearly something in the Devon air that spooked Exeter City - but this is to our advantage.

That is because, on the back of Chesterfield's eye-popping 6-1 win at St James Park on Tuesday, the price on Exeter winning at home to Chester on Saturday has charged from an early-week price [1.6] up towards [1.85], which should be snapped up.

Exeter simply had a ghoulish off night and, by all accounts, might just as well have been standing around chewing toffee apples, such was the ease with which they allowed their opponents to go past them.

But this is a squad that has hardly changed from the one that sneaked up the Blue Square Premier last season and was promoted via the play-offs. Note, former league teams promoted back up via the play-offs often do better the next season than that year's champions.

In recent years, the Grecians have weathered the woes of administration and this week's thrashing will be a temporary setback. It won't stop Matt Gill from making those probing runs from midfield that have brought him six goals this season, and it won't stop Adam Stansfield striving to keep up his goal per three games career record.

In fact it rather did Paul Tisdale a favour, because he surely won't get the curse of manager of the month, which so often precedes defeat. Nobody would give it to him after such a drubbing and the result leaves Darlington boss Dave Penny, unbeaten in October with 14 points compared to Tisdale's 13, as the leading candidate.

Don't think Chester have turned any corner by ending Brentford's 12-game unbeaten run at the Deva. They have conceded 20 goals on their travels and only one once away. The Brentford victory was another freak result, from the point of view that the visitors performed so badly - and it will also harden their resolve to push on up the league, thereby doing punters another favour.

If Exeter will be hurting, so will Brentford, whose captain Adam Newton says they are aiming for a top three finish. They seem to think an early chance to redeem themselves at Griffin Park will be just the ticket.

Initially, Brentford's chances of beating Rochdale were chalked up at [1.95]. Now they are [2.3], which is a much more realistic, if still risky, wager, against Keith Hill's side who have bagged 11 goals in three games - six against Chester and three against Aldershot Town, neither of whom inspire away from home.

Such is Aldershot's ability to capitulate on the road, I'll not be backing them to actually win at Morecambe on Saturday, even if the hosts are there for the taking and there are signs that The Shots can finally add away points to their three gained at Accrington on the opening day.

Gary Waddock's men resisted the late battering Port Vale belatedly inflicted on Tuesday as the snow fell on the Rec (sorry, the EBB Stadium. After 20-odd years of Shots watching, change doesn't come easily). It shows they have learnt how to hold on to what they have got in the final 10 minutes, which Waddock has lambasted them for failing to do on the road.

In addition they had a more solid look than of late. Rhys Day has made a welcome return at centre-back, pushing Anthony Charles out to left back. Junior Osborne appears to have solved their right back problems, meaning Louie Soares is free to do what he does best - roam on the right. He didn't understand the right back role, anyway. Up front, big Danny Hylton is blossoming into a fine handful of a striker.

You might think the draw is a high-risk strategy when I could simply lay the Shots. But I think not. Sammy McIllroy's men have three draws at home and just one win, average exactly a goal a game (scoring once in 12 from 14 league outings) and the draw should be taken at [3.45]. A 1-1 scoreline will also be a rare foray into the actual score market at [6.5].