League Two Betting: Get on those odds-on shots Aldershot

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 01 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Ian Lamont tells us why the usual football betting rules don't apply in January and picks out the League Two bets that will hopefully get 2009 off to a winning start.

There's a line in a Steve Martin film where he is reminded by a reckless driver that it is open season on the freeway, so the usual rules of the road don't apply. January is a bit like that in football betting. Scratch many of the records and form that teams have accumulated during the campaign so far - this is where the teams at the bottom start to pick up points. There's also the transfer window to think about, with new signings desperate to impress upsetting the most confident of tips.

In League Two it could be argued that the situation where three teams have been given hefty points deductions has handed the poor teams a free season. There is less urgency to pick up points because the chances of being relegated have been virtually eliminated. This despite the fact that five teams have given their managers the boot (six if you count Bournemouth twice, with Jimmy Quinn going on New Year's Eve). Another, Paul Fairclough at Barnet, went voluntarily last weekend.

With chairmen under reduced pressure to stave off relegation, it arguably makes for a poorer quality division, but on the other hand it means that plenty of middle ranking teams are falling over themselves to reach the play-offs and a little extra push of investment could make all the difference. With just five points between third and 11th, the division is the tightest of England's four.

So will the regular rules of the road - and the January abstinence - still apply? Don't be fooled by the points deductions. Firstly, Barnet and, even more urgently, Grimsby, need points because Rotherham have shot clear of their minus 17 start and Bournemouth (-17) and Luton (-30) are catching up fast. So fast, in Luton's case, that Mick Harford was nominated as a manager of the month candidate after an unbeaten December. I desperately hope that Brentford's Paul Scott wins the award, because Hartford winning it would jinx Luton to win at Chester City at [2.84]. Take away Luton's points loss, and they would be bang in mid-table.

The Hatters have worked hard for their 10 points in December, which included four draws - against Bournemouth, Wycombe, Morecambe and Chesterfield - to add to victories over Barnet and Lincoln. The sensible option is to play the draw or lay Chester, but this isn't the season for being sensible. Besides, Luton need the points desperately if they are to continue to claw back their disadvantage because January's fixtures are even tougher than December's, featuring Rotherham, Darlington, Bradford and Bury, three of whom fancy their chances of promotion.

I can see Ian Roper, a central defender with bags of experience who has been a big part of the inspiration behind Luton this season, galvanising his side and keeping Chester's Ryan Lowe and big Kevin Ellison quiet. Young midfielder Michael Spillane, on loan from Norwich, has also been . Tom Craddock, of Middlesbrough, has signed on for another month. He scored three in five starts from mid-October before picking up an injury, and again last Friday, as Luton's five strikers fight for their team places - and livelihoods in the Football League.

For Grimsby, January is like looking over the abyss, with games against Morecambe, Wycombe, Rotherham and Bradford to play. So Mike Newell simply has to galvanise them at leaderless Barnet, especially if he wants to persuade his loan signings to stay. This would be a relegation dog-fight were not for the division's points deductions. [3.45] is simply too big for such a desperate occasion.

In a list of five out of 10 odds-on home wagers, three that should be taken for a [5.0] treble are three of those middle ranking teams mentioned above, Aldershot [1.82], Rochdale [1.69] and Exeter [1.87].

Aldershot - who still struggle for a right back - will be desperate to show their defeat to Dagenham was a blip on their home form. Rochdale are unbeaten at home since the start of September, so will not fear a limited Accrington. The signing of Lee McEvilly's quality touch up front might just be the key to The Dale's chances of finally realising promotion. Exeter remain a dogged outfit whose opponents Port Vale were struggling to hold on against Rochdale last weekend before netting a late winner.

Recommendations:

Luton to win at Chester at [2.84]
Grimsby to beat Barnet at [3.45]
Aldershot to beat Notts County at [1.82]
Rochdale to beat Accrington Stanley at [1.69]
Exeter to beat Port Vale at [1.87]

Treble, Aldershot, Rochdale, Exeter at [5.0]