League Two Betting: Forget Sven, it's all about Simpson and Sammy

English Football League / Gary Boswell / 27 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Likewise at Morecambe where Sammy McIlroy is now well settled and the season long loans of Ian Craney and Phil Jevons from Huddersfield are astute gets for the Shrimps. Their price of 8.0 looks long to me given how hard they pushed for a play-off place late last season."

Gary Boswell tells us why he's not buying the hype surrounding the arrival of Sven Goran Eriksson at Notts County and which teams represent far better prospects in Betfair's League Two promotion market.

You hear it banded around the football world regularly these days. Conference Premier is the new Fifth Division of the Football League. The level of difference in standard between it and League Two is ever diminishing.

There are those of us who would argue that because of the ambition factor and the perceived psychological prize in winning a place back in the official Football League Fourth Division - and the associated financial benefit that brings - standards at the top of the Conference are higher now than those in the lower reaches of League Two.

In the six seasons before last, since the 'coming of age' of the Conference and the introduction of the (long fought for) second promotion place, twelve sides have gone up from the Conference into League Two and Chester City's demise last season was the first instance of one of those sides coming back down. In the three years before the play-offs and second promotion place were introduced, Boston, Rushden and Kidderminster had entered the League as Conference Champions and all three of those clubs found their way back down to Non-League Football.

Furthermore, of those twelve promoted teams since 2002 and before the arrival of Burton and Torquay this year, four clubs - Yeovil, Doncaster, Carlisle and Exeter have made the double leap up out of League Two. Doncaster of course as far as the Championship.

There's little doubt that the trend is an upward one and it would seem wise to consider including all recent Conference clubs in your portfolio for League Two Promotion this year. Eleven of the Twenty Four teams in the division come into this category and with three promotion candidates to identify, it is a compelling market made all the more interesting this year by the fact that Notts County have suddenly leapt to massively short priced favourite at [2.52] following the arrival of Sven Goran Eriksson as Director of Football.

Cynics will join me in concluding that is a serious knee-jerk of a price and at worst a Lay to Back opportunity. County were a dour outfit in the nether regions of the league last season and whilst money is obviously being thrown at the club, early signs are that any improvement in playing strength and results will be gradual. There is also the whiff of calamity about the whole affair and the arrival of football's Mr T (for trouble!) - Lee Hughes is further indication that a circus atmosphere is quickly building up at Meadow Lane. How long before the whole thing implodes in the current financial climate? If it leads you to conclude that a serious long-term candidate for promotion is being formed, you obviously think differently to me!

I'm following my Non-League Club thread where steady growth both on and off the pitch is in evidence.

Paul Simpson's Shrewsbury are interesting at [3.3]. The departure of Grant Holt might be seen as a negative for the Shrews but I'd personally see that as more good business by Simpson, who is a manager adept at building a progressive club atmosphere. Likewise at Morecambe where Sammy McIlroy is now well settled and the season long loans of Ian Craney and Phil Jevons from Huddersfield are astute gets for the Shrimps. Their price of [8.0] looks long to me given how hard they pushed for a play-off place late last season.

I would also not dismiss the two new incumbents. Torquay might not have quite the clout that Exeter had last season but [8.2] looks long and things are definitely on the up in that corner of the world. Paul Buckle and the Torquay boardroom were much admired during their stay in Non-League football and Buckle's links to Tisdale are well documented. They learnt their trade together. It will be no surprise to see the Gulls come roaring out of the blocks this season and they look a strong Back to Lay in the Promotion market.

Burton are more of a puzzle with their new manager Paul Peschisolido a serious unknown factor. I have a sneaking feeling though that this is one of those canny appointments and that Peschisolido is about to write his name in the young management talent register. The Burton price of [9.6] might well be a steal. I've watched the Brewers closely in the past six years and the way the club is run is to me the model that all others should follow. The money generated by the 0-0 draw against Man U in the FA Cup has sourced the climb. I expect it to continue and it is not lost on me that the other team with similar good fortune in the FA Cup was Exeter City and look what happened to them last season!