League Two Betting: Daggers can deny Taylor's Wanderers

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 18 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Ian Lamont runs through the League Two odds ahead of this weekend's fixtures - and he doesn't have good news for Wycombe supporters.

When someone scoffs at your deep-held opinion, it fires the imagination to present a cogent argument to justify your stance.

Having been sparring for a good ruck all week, somebody challenged me to defend my belief that Peter Taylor has the managerial skills to gain Wycombe promotion.

Ironically the challenge comes in the week I always planned to lay them at anything under [2.0] at home to Dagenham.

Taking the long-term view, Taylor's managerial record might have its holes in the top echelons but he is proven through and through in the fourth and third tiers of English football.

He won Gillingham promotion to the second tier in 1999-2000, with 34 victories out of his 62 games in charge (55%) and losing just 16. He lost just six times when taking Brighton up into the second tier and winning the same percentage (55%) with 21 wins in 38 games. Then he took Hull City from the fourth tier to the second in successive seasons.

The Hull figures are worth breaking down a little more. In a total of 184 games, he won 77 (42%) lost 57 and drew 50. Having been appointed in October 2002, his win/draw/loss record over the rest of the season was pretty even. But then in the next two seasons he gained successive promotions, winning first 25/46 (54%) and losing just eight, before winning 26/46 (56.5%) as Hull were promoted to the Championship.

But in the Championship and Premiership, his record is not so good. Hull won just 12 games in the whole of the next season. In the Premiership with Leicester, his record was 19 wins in 54 games and in the Championship with Crystal Palace he notched just 21 wins from 60 matches.

So my theory is that his best work has been done in what football purists still call divisions three and four. Players and clubs find their level, so why should the same not be true of managers?

His England Under-21 record also holds up well. In his first term, England played 15, won 11, drew 3 and lost once. In his second spell, he played 16, won 9, drew 5 and lost 2. That supports those, like me, who think he has a talent for improving young players and that the lower divisions are where you should find them.

The fact that, in his first stint as England U21 boss, his team qualified for the Euro 2000 Finals comfortably, not conceding a goal in the competition, brings me back neatly to his current post at Wycombe. Unbeaten this season, the Chairboys have conceded just once in six league games - and if a team don't concede, the percentages are already a long way to being in their favour in the long-term.

If there is one team that might breach that defensive record it is Dagenham, who have netted 16 times in six league games.

Taylor admits his new-look team hasn't gelled yet, but packing five into midfield at home to Brentford last weekend wasn't a positive step when any club with promotion ambitions will need to make home advantage count.

As with Brenford's [4.0] last week, the same on Dagenham to breach Wycombe's stronghold looks enormous under the circumstances, but the safer way to play is to lay Taylor's men.

The Daggers have every reason to be confident. John Still is a wily soul, improving the 2006-07 Conference champions by evolution not revolution. They have attacked relentlessly and scored freely this season, impressive Sam Saunders leading with way with five strikes from midfield. You can never have enough goals from behind the front two, even decent front men such as Paul Benson and Ben Strevens. The division's player of the month Soloman Taiwo can supply the chances.

Elsewhere, a home double takes my fancy. Bradford, another free-scoring side, should be backed at [1.6] to dispose of a Bournemouth, who have yet to score more than once in a league fixture this term. Back Peter Thorne to score.

Then there is a solid-looking Brentford side. There's an air of confidence about Griffin Park and the Bees should justify being odds-on at [1.76] against a Lincoln side full of defensive lapses.