League Two Betting: Cherries close down quickly in bid to beat drop

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 19 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

Well calculated gambles are aiding Bournemouth's bid for survival and in-form Bury should be taken even at a short price. Ian Lamont recommends the weekend's best League Two bets. Best Bet: Lay Chesterfield @ [2.1] at home to Bournemouth

Big risks got the world into its current financial malaise and somewhere down the line, Bournemouth, too, took financial risks that didn't pay off and found themselves in a downward spiral. Hence the points deduction that has handicapped their season.

Now they seem to be taking a few smaller but better calculated risks and are reaping rewards as they attempt to stop themselves plummeting further down football's pyramid into the Blue Square Premier. Their chairman mentioned convalescence at the start of the season, but long-established Football League clubs don't like the idea of sinking into non-league, even before the advent of, ironically, far greater TV exposure but for far less cash.

While the club ponders businessman Alan Pither's pledge to buy the club for a single £1 and take on the debts, League Two gamblers should take a calculated risk of their own and lay opponents Chesterfield at [2.1] on Friday night, thereby covering the draw.

On the face of it, one win away from home all season and, in their last eight trips away, four draws and four defeats might not inspire confidence in the Cherries to win at Saltergate. But the most recent of those away draws is part of a five-game run reaping three victories and a draw, all at home. That has been enough to kick-start the charge for a team who will be dubbed Eddie Howe's heroes if they stay up.

Momentum is everything at this stage of the season. Closing opponents down quickly, as Accrington boss John Coleman said Bournemouth did last week, will be key. Captain Shaun Cooper returns from a ban at centre-back, while Joe Partington proved his versatility as his stand-in. Jake Thompson has extended his loan from Southampton for a second month and Brett Pitman, 21, has bagged five goals in as many games.

Chesterfield, without a game for two weeks previously, lost and had three wins out of four before that, but I believe Lee Richardson's men will find the Cherries tougher than their recent victims Notts County, Chester and Exeter. Losing at Shrewsbury in itself seems no disgrace, but there were plenty of disgruntled supporters who felt their side created few chances.

I wasn't impressed when I saw Manchester City's loanee Clayton MacDonald playing in central defence for Macclesfield earlier this season, and Danny Gritton up front does not have the wit of departed Jamie Ward and even with Jack Lester returning from a ban, Bournemouth should have too much determination to let the hosts win.

Bury are in top form and should be taken even at a short price to defeat Notts County. Alan Knill's men have won five in an unbeaten run of eight and appear to have all the momentum they need to challenge at the other end of the table. And they have a plethora of talent to choose from. The attacking places have been keenly contested this season with ball players and free-kick specialists abounding.

Striker Glynn Hurst is finding out that he dare not be injured or suspended, as he cannot get back into a team that has shown remarkably few changes in recent matches. Earlier in the campaign I rather felt Knill did not know his best side, but with Elliott Bennett, Stephen Dawson, Brian Barry-Murphy, Mike Jones and, up front, Andys Bishop and Morrell making the front six their own Bury's automatic promotion bid looks healthy. Defender Efe Sodje's contributions in both penalty areas are helping, too.

You can't dominate entire games - and it has been a concern that Bury don't dominate enough of one or make key errors to put them behind - but Notts County are too inconsistent to disrupt the hosts for long enough to take points.

Similarly, Darlington are building a very good team. They have games in hand to press for a top three spot, although a backlog worries Dave Penney. A defence that has not conceded in three games should not be troubled by Grimsby, it is just a case of getting more goals out of Liam Hatch or Pawel Abbott and Danny Carlton. Perhaps left-back Tim Ryan and left-midfielder Franz Burgmeier, returning from one-match bans, can supply the balls.