League Two Betting: Bury and Notts County worth opposing

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 25 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Ian Lamont gives us the rundown on all things League Two betting. And this week Ian does things the "Betfair way" with two recommended lays.

Fathoming the reasons behind the slump of Port Vale this season has not been easy - and that is what their board concluded this week and fired the manager Lee Sinnott.

If you are going to lose 4-1 at home to Macclesfield, a team whose limited resources dictate an away attitude to frustrate and hope to land a killer blow on the break, then the chairman is going to get an itchy trigger figure.

Port Vale's story is a lesson for any relegated side that think it will be easier a level down. Sinnott might have been thinking that he would really be judged on this season, having had the chance now to form his own team and work with them in pre-season, in a way he could not do having joined them on November 5 last season. Relegation, and then two wins from seven this term, however, left his boss Bill Bratt lamenting that the "gamble" to employ him had not paid off.

Unfortunately the exit of the former Watford defender, who as manager of Farsley Celtic notched three promotions in four years, denies a chance to see how he would fair, having truly moulded his own team, against another non-league old boy, Mark Stimson. The Ex-Stevenage and Grays boss has guided the Gills to 10 points this season, and his side the ones to be on at about [2.0] against a Vale side licking their wounds.

The lightning pace of Simeon Jackson is the reason for my confidence, even without suspended strike partner Mark McCammon. The 21-year-old scored 18 goals for Rushden in the Conference in 2006-07, then another 18 last term before a £150,000 January transfer to Gillingham. This is his second spell in the Football League, but his first real one to prove himself. In addition, the Gills battled hard at Aldershot with 10 men last week and looked an awful lot more solid after the scarring experience of losing 7-0 to Shrewsbury.

Two of my choices this week are to play things the Betfair way - and lay.

The first is Bury at home at [2.3]. It is only really a lay to cover the draw, because Wycombe are again a big price to win away - this time [3.25]. Their odds for away wins have increased as the season goes on, despite an 100 per cent record and no goals conceded. This large price, however, is hardly surprising when their opponents are the league leaders who have not dropped a home point. Something has to give.

This match has all the ingredients to be the battle of the set-pieces. Peter Taylor's Wycombe continue to rely on them - Lewwis Spence delivering two corners last week for Mike Williamson to head in from seemingly impossible positions more than a dozen yards from goal. At Gigg Lane, if Williamson wants to repeat the trick he is going to have to make sure it goes not detract from his defensive duties. This will be concerned with seeing out the threats caused by Bury's own dead ball specialist Andy Morrell. Andy Bishop, who netted 19 times last season, including in this fixture, will have to be tightly marked, a task Wycombe's defensive record of just two goals conceded suggests they can manage.

The next lay of the day are [2.4] Notts County - the draw specialists. I don't expect great things from Ian McParland's side this season.

Two late goals by Sean Canham in their past two games at Accrington and Exeter have kept that precarious draws record going to six and Aldershot Town will be looking for points at Meadow Lane.

Gary Waddock's hungry young side have plenty of shots from midfield and whenever Scott Davies shoots from distance the fans expect something special to happen. The visitors will eye this as a chance to take some points because for years the Hampshire side's philosophy has been the old football style of however many you score, we'll have a great crack at scoring more. They also don't believe they have done themselves justice on the road yet, having narrowly lost at Shrewsbury and then losing at Luton Town, disintegrating after losing a man with three quarters of the match gone. It could be a tight one, with under 2.5 goals seeming the way forward.