English Football League / Ian Lamont / 23 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Ian lamont has been repeating an old betting saying while casting his eye over this weekend's League Two fixtures for his regular betting column...

Back a team in form is an old gambling maxim, with the caveat that you have to know your away form from your home form - and sometimes when to quit when you are ahead.

Brentford are now 11 games unbeaten and only have one defeat - at Bury on the opening day. No disgrace there. Along the way since it has often been a case of grinding out results without much collateral damage - a sign of a good side, they say.

There's not much to argue with at the back, with just six goals conceded in the league, but the strikers have to hit a bigger stride up front. Before Tuesday, the Bees had scored exactly one a game in the previous five matches. At Aldershot Town last Saturday, their midfielders moved around The Rec - sorry, the EBB Stadium, it takes some getting used to - in a similar sort of style to Bury a few weeks before.

But while Glenn Poole and, from the back, Adam Newton - among others - provided plenty of good work going forward, there was a lack of decisive edge in front of goal. Striker Charlie McDonald doesn't have the pace or footballing wit of Bury's Andy Bishop or Andy Morrell to trouble defences quite as much. That is not to say that his scoring record of five in 11 - and career stats of a goal every three games - is not without merit, as he proved against Morecambe on Tuesday night.

Brentford's defensive solidity at the back gives them the sort of base any promotion challengers need. Combine that with Shrewsbury's inability to win away in the league since August and the visitors to Griffin Park have to be a lay, even at a chunky [3.0]. Paul Simpson's side should have taken a lot of confidence from their demolition of Wycombe in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy, even against a weakened side, but Tuesday's defeat at improving Accrington says otherwise.

Another team in form - or at least with a consistency of form guide - are Notts County. Another side unbeaten since the first match of the season, in their case most of their results have been draws. It is a credit they have not changed the good footballing style Ian MacParland set out to achieve at the start of the season. There are some good ball-playing sides in a division which has often been stereotyped as scrappy and a last-chance saloon for some players and clubs who are desperate to stay out of a the evil cess-pit of non-league football - the latter view being just as inaccurate as the former.

The Magpies have pinched points against better sides than Chesterfield this season. Saturday's hosts have not been able to string two league wins together this term. Yes, they might have demolished Aldershot on Wednesday night, but who hasn't recently when the Shots have been on their travels? Up and coming Saltergate striker Jamie Ward simply took advantage as the Hampshire side's naivety on the road was exposed. More importantly, Chesterfield drew their previous two at home and level pegging should be backed at [3.5]

Some teams you would back every week at home but never away and vice versa. I learned my lesson the other week by laying Gillingham at home and it is time to respect their form at Priestfield Stadium, where they have only lost once - you've guessed it - in August. The defence has only been breached twice at their Kent home since - by Notts County in Tuesday's 2-2 draw. If conceding a goal to Delroy Facey, the County striker who has only scored twice from 12 starts this season, doesn't inspire confidence in the host team's defensive capabilities, then the fact that Saturday's Chester City are still shipping goals should, so back Gillingham at [1.8].

The Cheshire side won't be plucking many points from the Garden of England this weekend, after a dispiriting 6-1 defeat at Rochdale, albeit with the handicap of playing for an hour with 10 men. The fact it was an 18-year-old, Glenn Rule, who got sent off shows there is much to work on at The Deva, where Simon Davies must be fearing for his managers' job at a club who fire managers more frequently than Simon Cowell tells an X Factor contestant their singing is no better than karaoke.