League Two Betting: Back the enigma

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 05 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

Don't be fooled by Tuesday night's defeat - Brentford ready to mount a serious title challenge, says Ian Lamont. Best bet: Back Brentford to win at [1.6]

There's value in backing the enigma that is Brentford to beat Chester this weekend, although at [1.6] that is not the value bet. The League Two outright market is where to find what could turn out to be a real asset.

I believe Brentford's midweek defeat at Morecambe was a rare lapse. It seemed unthinkable after they produced one of the season's standout results last Saturday by winning at Shrewsbury. The team was unchanged, but suffered only a fifth league defeat - strangely all against teams from the North West.

That makes next Tuesday's trip to Accrington extra testing, but with two home games on Saturdays, against Chester and Port Vale, Andy Scott's side are nicely priced at [6.4] to be a run for your money in the next couple of weeks, if not the season. Leaders Wycombe could easily draw their next two Saturday games at Darlington and Bradford - or conceivably not gain anything at all - and travel again next Tuesday to Dagenham. Their four-point lead could evaporate.

I have long been sceptical of midweek results in assessing a team's capabilities over a season. But it seems Brentford's travel preparations this week were thoroughly disrupted by the weather. And only a few dozen supporters made the trip.

There is plenty to like about Scott's side, especially on-loan Jordan Rhodes, who has impressed with four goals. Charlie MacDonald is clearly enjoying the new partnership. Nathan Elder may not get a look in, especially if he is prone to getting sent off. Reading keeper Ben Hamer is a safe pair of hands and Marcus Bean adds considerable authority in the middle of the park.

Meanwhile, at Chester the distress flares are still firing. Boss Mark Wright called on his board to bring in reinforcements - after the transfer window shut. Losing six players on deadline day did not help the cause of a side wrestling with injuries and suspensions, but two points from seven games says it all.

Wycombe are a lay at Darlington at [2.9], even if that seems chunky. Darlington boss Dave Penney could well be manager of the month by kick-off, something of a curse, but there is little arguing with four wins out of five in January and one defeat in eight that has propelled them to the top four.

Midfielder Tom Purdie seems to have hit some inspired form at the right time and the Quakers had a fully fit squad raring to go at Bradford before Monday's game was postponed. Suspensions to Franz Burgmeier and Tim Ryan are a bit of a worry, but Peter Taylor has some confidence building to do at Wycombe. After losing Mike Williamson, Wanderers had a cheeky bid for Dagenham striker Ben Strevens rejected but at least signed John-Paul Pittman to replace Angelo Balanta who was recalled to QPR.

Those who follow Shrewsbury seem bullish that January could be a big hit, starting with a trip to "strugglers" Bournemouth. The Cherries are only second to bottom because of a points deduction and have the fifth strongest defence at home, on goals conceded. Shrewsbury's away "goals for" record is the joint-worst in the league. There is a certain renewed resilience on the south coast after the addition of talisman Steve Fletcher and the Shrews are getting ahead of themselves if they think they can kick-start winning away. A target of 10 wins in their final 17 games to claim automatic promotion won't happen unless they can convert a bucket full of draws into more than their solitary victory on their travels.

As far as I'm concerned they have had their chances and, with covering the draw in mind, the away win is a lay at [2.74]. Bournemouth boss Eddie Howe has reinstated a decent keeper in Shwan Jalal at the expense of Spurs loanee David Button, blamed for errors in the 3-3 draw at Lincoln. The South coast club will be in no mood to let further points slip. It's backs against the wall - now or never time on and off the pitch, with new investors being sought.