League One Previews: Cherries to pick off Yeovil late on
English Football League
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Alan Dudman /
29 December 2011 /
Bournemouth boss Lee Bradbury
"It might be worth looking at In-Play prices with this game, with Yeovil's tendency to drop and defend deeper late in matches, which hopefully will present the opportunity to back the Cherries at a bigger price in the second-half."
A full programme of League One action this weekend means Alan Dudman has been studying hard to comprise a portfolio of tasty wagers.
Leyton Orient v Charlton, KO: Saturday 17:20, live on Sky Sports 1, Match Odds: Leyton Orient [4.0], Charlton [2.06], The Draw [3.6]
League leaders Charlton face a crucial month ahead, with the first of two London derbies this weekend against Orient and later games in January against Sheffield United and Sheffield Wednesday. The New Year could prove to be decisive in terms of their title price - which currently trades at [2.1].
The Addicks have always shown their resilient attitude this season, which was evident during the Boxing Day 3-2 win at Yeovil. Having fallen behind twice, the Londoners sealed victory with an injury time winner from Danny Green. His wing play is a joy to behold, with delivery that will be highlighted as a main danger to Orient this weekend. Charlton can hit fast down the wings and press high up the pitch. Although they were free scoring two months ago, manager Chris Powell has been known to be tight on their travels with 1-0 wins at Walsall and Brentford this season.
Orient meanwhile were thumped by the classy MK Dons over the holidays and were punished for a lack of a finishing touch and a poor second-half. It's no surprise they spent much of the game on the back foot, as the Dons are still one of the best in the division at passing the ball.
The hosts welcome back Leon McSweeney after suspension but are still missing the wing delights of Dean Cox. Despite the recent 3-0 loss, the Os are strong defensively with four of their last six home games containing Under 2.5 Goals. I would be surprised if Russell Slade's team go too attacking, and Charlton would have the extra quality to nick a tight game.
Yeovil v Bournemouth, KO: Saturday 13:00, Match Odds: Yeovil [2.96], Bournemouth [2.64], The Draw [3.4]
West Country strugglers Yeovil lost nothing in defeat during the Boxing Day 3-2 reverse against Charlton, and are still looking to combine the much sought after mix of performance with result - they just can't seem to get both. Their showing against the league leaders was excellent, but they threw away the lead on two occasions (including two set-pieces conceded). The Greens try to pass and play on occasions, but they are more famed for being fairly physical. On the plus side they attacked Charlton at will, with the ever dangerous Jon Obika showing his pace. Against the better teams this season, Yeovil have lined-up more defensively and I think that manager Terry Skiverton will adopt that approach here.
Bournemouth are a tidy footballing side who would be the silkier of these two, more Makepeace than Dempsey if you like. If they can get their passing game going here, Lee Bradbury's team look a decent bet. The Boxing Day 1-1 at Brentford extended their unbeaten away record to nine, and showed they were the better team for long periods at Griffin Park. Remember Bournemouth have beaten Huddersfield, Preston and Wycombe on their travels and have shown themselves to be quite a hard side to break down.
It might be worth looking at In-Play prices with this game, with Yeovil's tendency to drop and defend deeper late in matches, which hopefully will present the opportunity to back the Cherries at a bigger price in the second-half.
Wycombe v Stevenage, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Wycombe [3.4], Stevenage [2.36], The Draw [3.4]
There is a goal-scoring sensation in town, well if you live in Buckinghamshire. His name is Marcello Trotta and his currency is goals and he plays for Wycombe. The 19-year-old Fulham loanee has hit six in his last four games, including the Boxing Day hat-trick which dispatched of Exeter. All of a sudden the Wanderers have become one of the most exciting teams in the league, their last four matches have resulted in a total of 20 goals (including a 4-3 and 3-2), all of which have achieved over 2.5 status.
Stevenage (as often mentioned here) are one of the most organised teams at this level boasting one of the best defences. Yet they went goals crazy on Boxing Day, and from nowhere hit six at Colchester. The Boro haven't been beaten since early October and are one of the form teams. The victory in Essex last weekend saw them produce one of their best spells of football this entire season, and they are riding high under Graham Westley.
The hosts are real force going forward and are dangerous in wide areas, but Stevenage are full of confidence and will really test Wycombe. Westley will think he can win this game, which nudges me to the Over 2.5 Goals option.