English Football League / Alan Dudman / 14 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Alan Dudman tells us why the first leg of this tie was a good advert for League One football and why he expects the second to follow suit with plenty of goals in a tie in which he expects Roberto Di Matteo's boys to progress to the final. Best bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ Back over 2.5 goals @ [2.18].

MK Dons [1.89] versus Scunthorpe United [4.60], the draw [3.65]

Despite the MK Dons finishing a huge 11 points clear of Scunthorpe in the League One regular season, their chances of promotion will be going right down to the wire ahead of Friday night's play-off semi-final second leg.

Following the 1-1 draw in the first-leg, Roberto Di Matteo's side trade as clear favourites to qualify, and are available to back at [1.42]. Scunthorpe are knocking around the [2.82] mark to gain a second Wembley appearance of the season. In both markets, the Dons are a warm order - but perhaps a tad on the short side.

It's important to remember that the 'away goals' rule does not count for these games. Should it be level after 90 minutes, it will be extra-time and then if needed, penalties.

Having watched the first game at Glandford Park, I was pleasantly surprised at how open the contest was. The 1-1 draw didn't really reflect the nature of a real-end-to-end stonker. Although I favoured the under 2.5 goals market, it was a bet that was toying with my emotions of getting out nice and early from around 10 minutes!

The MK Dons really ought to have put the game to bed in Lincolnshire, Sam Baldock's glaring miss at the end may prove costly. It could have also been wrapped up as Miguel Llera felt the need to become a member of the profligacy club too. Mistakes crept into their defending and Roberto Di Matteo has outlined his hopes of no such errors again: "I thought we did well but we did make some mistakes, which hopefully we won't make again. It wasn't just defensive ones, it was attacking ones too."

In terms of injuries, it is a case of 'as you were' for the MK Dons. Key defender Sean O'Hanlon is still a doubt with a knee ligament injury, whilst attacker Ali Gerba is also struggling to make Friday's game.

Scunthorpe have got injury problems of their own and 30-goal striker Gary Hooper didn't train on Wednesday and is struggling to shake off the groin problem picked up in the first-leg. However, he was virtually ruled out a couple of weeks ago but made it against Cheltenham, and I imagine he'll be just about fit for Friday night. Although Hooper has been relatively quiet in the last eight matches, his partnership with Paul Hayes is ultra potent - which has
led to Fulham reportedly showing an interest in the poacher.

Iron boss Nigel Adkins has those continued problems at left-back. Marcus Williams, Joe Mills and Andrew Wright all missed the first leg, but stand-in full-back Ian Morris did a fine job in the opening game, and is more than an able deputy.

The one thing you get with Scunthorpe is attacking football. It's the way they play, and it's highly unlikely the MK Dons will just sit back and take it. There really should have been more goals in the first-leg and I am hoping for a real free-flowing game. I would worry about backing the Dons at those short prices, as they have been beaten a few times at home this season - including by Scunthorpe in December.

Adkins has played the game perfectly, his team are underdogs and feels the pressure is on Di Matteo: "They got a draw up here, finished third and will be expected to beat us to get to Wembley," he said.

"We know we got a good 2-0 down at Stadium MK in the League, and they will be mindful of that too."

In short, the value on MK Dons has gone, and as much as Scunthorpe look too big in price, I think the home side may just edge it.