English Football League / Alan Dudman / 12 May 2009 / Leave a comment

An obdurate Millwall may have prevailed in the ill-tempered first leg but does Alan Dudman believe that the Lions are on their way to Wembley? Best Bet: Back Leeds United in the 'to qualify market' @ [1.95].

Leeds United [1.76] v Millwall [5.50], the draw [3.70]

Thursday 14th May, kick-off 19:45, live on Sky

The first-leg wasn't quite a classic and Millwall's spoiling tactics worked extremely well to hand them the advantage heading into the return game at Elland Road this Thursday. Leeds have drifted out to [1.96] in the 'to qualify market', and could be just 90 minutes away from Wembley.

A Neil Harris goal seperates the two sides from Saturday, and Lions boss Kenny Jackett got his tactics spot on in London. "It was a very good clean sheet for us, and the back four kept a very good frontline quiet and that was key, and now we need a big performance to get us to Wembley," he said.

Whether or not Millwall can put that big performance in is open to debate. At the current price of [5.50] to win in Yorkshire, the layers think they can't. And I agree.

Millwall have been very good this season at harrassing and spoiling. They can shut off the supply from midfield. They did it against Peterborough and they did it again against the Whites at the weekend. Leeds midfielder Fabian Delph started on the left and barely got a touch on Saturday. Snodgrass, Howson and Kilkenny all were quiet whilst Becchio and Beckford barely had a chance created for them all afternoon.

Leeds boss Simon Grayson has the sound of a confident man looking ahead to Thursday night: "That alone isn't going to get us through, we've got to play better, but I'm confident we will turn it around."

Whilst the Yorkshire side barely created a chance in London, I feel the gameplan was always going to be stay in it from the first-leg and have a right good go at them back at home. Beckford will have much more of a supply line - well, he can't have less than he did on Saturday!

It will be red-hot (or white-hot) this week. 37,000 are expected at Elland Road, an attendance which will easily be their highest of the season. With
only a small number of Millwall fans travelling up north, they will be vastly outnumbered. And the home fans will make it a proper cup tie feel, reminding us of that intimidating West Yorkshire roar.

Grayson summed it up perfectly: "If anybody thought that was an atmosphere, wait until we get to Elland Road with 37,000 in there!"

Leeds defender Sam Sodje dislocated his shoulder in the first-leg, it was popped back in then, and he maintains his place at the heart of the backline. He stood firm against most of what Millwall threw at him, and I am struggling to see the Lions scoring here.

I am slightly surprised Leeds are trading at the same price as Millwall in the 'to qualify market' Both available to back at [1.95]. And in comparison to their match price, I think this looks outstanding value.