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English Football League

League One Play-off Betting: Carlisle v Leeds United

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Carlisle stunned Leeds United at Elland Road in what was arguably the biggest upset of the play-offs, in any division, so far. But, as the cliche goes, it's only half-time; now they must finish the job in front of their home fans.

First of all, let's get one thing straight; an out-of-form Carlisle United winning at Elland Road in the first leg was probably the result of the play-offs so far. An outstanding effort marred only by our tip Dougie Freedman pulling one back for the Whites six minutes into the allotted four minutes of injury-time.

The Betfair market has Leeds as favourites to win this evening's game, at odds of around [2.46]. I can totally understand why - but the [3.65] about the draw or [3.0] to back Carlisle to win at home both appeal more to me, frankly. If I had to come down on something, it'd be the draw, which would mean the Cumbrians taking their place at Wembley for a place in the Championship.

Team news is reasonably light with the reliable David Raven available after suspension for Carlisle, although I wonder whether they are really going to change a winning side? Jermaine Beckford, the Whites' top goalscorer, will play through pain in his ankle and veteran midfielder Alan Thompson might also be in the shake-up if boss Gary McAllister feels he needs to turn to experienced heads.

Leeds fans were superb near the end of the home leg, still getting right behind their side who'd disappointed them on the night. And that vociferous support will be in full choral order at Brunton Park tonight, willing their side on.

However I can't see a goal-laden affair with wily perma-tanned fox John Ward in charge of the home side. Under 2.5 goals is [1.83] to back in the Over/Under 2.5 goals stakes and that's my suggestion. It's about [2.16] for the Overs if, like last night's KC Stadium goal fest, you reckon an early one for either side might open the floodgates. The slightly illogical cover to that is to back Over 4.5 goals - a [7.2] shot - since if there's one there's likely to be a few more!

Freedman was the pick last time but I fancy Beckford might be in on the act at some point. Not in the best of touch, trends haven't seem to matter too much over these two-legged ties and I like the [3.15] you can get for backing him To Score at any time. He's a more generous [6.8] if you think he'll bag the first of the night.

For the hosts, meanwhile, Scott Dobie - enjoying some good karma in a second spell with the Blues after flopping everywhere else - is [5.0] to notch during the game and it'd be a good tale if he did. Things like that, like Nick Barmby helping get his boyhood club to Wembley, tend to happen in these games so include Dobie I reckon.

The Half Time/Full Time market is a tough place to invest - reflected by the fact that the shortest-priced back on there is Draw/Leeds at about [5.7]. Good luck if you're getting involved there - I think Something/Draw is the way to go so go with your hunch.

I've tipped up playing in the Sending Off market unsuccessfully a couple of times this week - but god loves a trier, eh? Let's have another go this evening as these two northern hard-nuts clash. It's [4.2] to see a red card brandished and a fiery opening start to the match would do us no harm if you join me in taking a chance on this scenario.

There's one other market I'd like to draw your attention to - especially if you're among those who feel Leeds can peg back this deficit but that the Cumbrians won't ultimately surrender: the Method of Victory list. The preserve of second legs such as this is knock-out competitions, which the play-offs effectively are, all the possible outcomes are covered.

So how about dabbling with penalties. Carlisle to prevail on spot-kicks is [14.0] to back while Leeds are [12.5] to do the same. If the Whites win by the odd goal and it goes through extra-time, you can relax in profit as you watch heroes and villains created. We haven't had a shootout yet - could tonight be the night?