League One Betting: Ways to profit from Leeds' decline

English Football League / Andrew Atherley / 08 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Despite having no points deduction to contend with this season Leeds United might miss out on promotion once again, says Andrew Atherley.

This time last year, Leeds were the form team in English football, having taken 25 points out of a possible 27 in their first nine games in League One. Yet they go into Saturday's home match against Brighton with a 'mere' 17 points from nine games this season and have been usurped as title favourites by Leicester, who top the table on 22 points.

The differences in Leeds' form under Gary McAllister, compared with their flying start to last season under Dennis Wise, are significant enough to be of interest to punters, especially those who like to oppose the bigger clubs in any league.

Love him or loathe him (and there aren't too many in the first camp), Wise was doing an excellent job at Leeds before his abrupt departure in January. Having been docked 15 points at the start of last season, Leeds were effectively matching strides with runaway leaders Swansea when Wise left.

Swansea had 56 points from 26 games at that stage, while Leeds were officially 12 points behind but in real terms were three points ahead of Swansea, having played two games more. To put Leeds' form into perspective, Swansea went on to lift the League One title by a margin of 10 points and are now good enough to be sitting eighth in the Championship table.

In 28 league games under Wise last season, Leeds won 18 and lost just five, averaging a phenomenal 2.11 points per game. If that had continued for the rest of the season, Leeds would have accumulated 97 points (five better than Swansea) and, even with their deduction knocking them back to 82 points, they would have won automatic promotion on goal difference. As it was, Leeds fell six points short of automatic promotion under new boss McAllister and then lost the playoff final to Doncaster.

Although they have no points deduction to contend with this season, Leeds' overall form under McAllister indicates that they will be just short of the promotion places again. Leeds' average points per game under McAllister against League One opposition (that is, including last season's play-off games) is 1.73, which would give them 80 points over the course of an entire season.

Only once in the past decade has 80 points been enough to earn one of the top two places in League One, while the median and average for League One winners in the past decade are around 92-93 points, which indicates that Leeds' form is some way short of championship standard. Laying Leeds for the title at [3.95] is worth considering.

A riskier option is to lay them for promotion at [1.82]. Their overall form figures under McAllister indicate they may well have to go the play-off route again, though this season's average points per game is an improved 1.89, which would be worth 87 points over the course of the season (almost certainly good enough for promotion, though still short of an average title-winning total).

Another potential area for punters to profit from Leeds' relative decline under McAllister is by finding ways of opposing them at Elland Road, with their status as a big club ensuring they are put in at short odds for every home game, as they are again for Saturday's match - [1.62] to back.

This season Leeds have been no bigger than [1.75] in their four home games, yet they have won only two of those games (both against teams currently in the bottom three). In all home games under McAllister their win rate is just 43%, which equates to odds of [2.33]. Nor have they had a particularly difficult fixture list, with nine of their 14 home games under McAllister against teams that finished outside the top ten last season or are outside the current top 10.

A notable feature of Leeds' home games under McAllister is their poor first-half performance - they have led at half-time in just three out of 14 (compared with eight out of 14 under Wise). Their lower overall home win rate under McAllister, coupled with their low number of half-time leads, makes them lay material at around [2.6] in the Half Time/Full Time market.

The prospects of McAllister's Leeds are pinned strongly on the performance of star striker Jermaine Beckford. Under Wise last season, Leeds won 10 out of 13 when Beckford scored, which he did in almost half of his league starts (13 out of 27) for the former manager.

Beckford's goals dried up after McAllister took charge, scoring in just three out of 15 for the new manager last season, but he has started in much better form this season. He has scored in five of his nine league starts, with Leeds winning four and drawing one of those games.

Even when he has scored at home for McAllister, however, Beckford has not always been able to pave the way to victory, with two wins and two draws in his four scoring games at Elland Road under McAllister. For Wise, Beckford scored in seven league home games and Leeds won all seven.

That indicates that keeping Beckford in scoring form holds the key for McAllister and for Leeds' chances of landing the odds on a regular basis at Elland Road.

For now, however, enough doubt exists about whether Leeds have any level of superiority over the rest of the leading promotion candidates in League One, and they look a team to be wary of at short odds in their home games.