English Football League / Alan Dudman / 08 October 2010 / 1

Away from the bright lights of international football, Southampton and Swindon look solid prospects to win again in League One....

Swindon Town [2.08] v Bristol Rovers [4.10], the draw [3.45]

Live on Sky, Monday 19:45

One of two live games over three days, and a match Bristol Rovers boss Paul Trollope will see as winnable. In truth, the two sides are fairly evenly matched. Swindon are not the same team as last season, they haven't got the same firepower nor ability to keep possession as well as they did in 2009/10. Robins' boss Danny Wilson did buy new players over the summer, and although it's taken time to gel, the squad is still threadbare.

Swindon put in a wretched display at Dagenham last Saturday, and conceded two soft goals. Wilson said: "We let ourselves down and perhaps are believing our own hype." That hype was two wins against the big spenders Huddersfield and Southampton. Wilson could only name six substitutes at Dagenham as he didn't have any more fit players. The good news is midfielder David Prutton (remember him?) is back from suspension, but there are still injuries to key men.

The shock result of last weekend was Bristol Rovers winning at Huddersfield. Will Hoskins bagged his fifth of the season, and he has the best quality in the side. Don't get too fooled by the result though; Huddersfield had lots of possession and chances, whilst
Trollope used a counter attack system that got a bit lucky with one fine moment (from Hoskins). They'll do the same here, soaking up long spells of pressure with the hope of hitting Swindon on the break.

The Pirates have pace up front, with John Akinde and Samuel Kuffour, although Hoskins may drop a bit deeper as he did at The Galpharm. Swindon are lacking something in the final third, but could have a fair bit of the ball, with Rovers probably hoping for the smash and grab.

Suggested bets:

Back Swindon to win @ [2.08]
Back under 2.5 goals @ [1.95]

Brighton [1.93] v Bournemouth [4.70], the draw [3.60]

Live on Sky, Saturday 12:15

A terrific game anticipated, with Albion set to attract their biggest gate of the season. It's top against third, and a clash of slightly different styles.

Brighton boss Gus Poyet has pressure to deliver a promotion, and he's going about it the right way. Albion have collected 21 points and are doing so in a no-nonsense style. Poyet bases his side on a strong unit defensively, with sound organisation and nothing too flashy. That said, on-loan Newcastle forward Kazenga Lua-Lua is a gem, he has pace in abundance and will be a constant threat.

I put up Bournemouth to get a result at a big price at Southampton last Saturday. They got two poor penalty decisions againstthem, but they were outplayed. The Cherries let themselves down a bit, as they never got into it, they got closed down, and resorted to the long ball. None of that has been seen this season at Dean Court. Bournemouth are the FSV Mainz of League One.

I rate them as a side, and I rate manager Eddie Howe. Bournemouth play crisp, sharp, attractive football and Howe lets them attack. They need to have more of the ball as the three formations used against Southampton couldn't get it back. If they
have it here and don't panic, they have the speed and players to get a result.

Best bets:

Back Bournemouth to win @ [4.70]
Back Bournemouth to win 1-2 @ [18.00]

Southampton [1.41] v Tranmere Rovers [10.00], the draw [4.50]

Tranmere are one of the most unpredictable sides around, and surely even at double figure odds they won't cause another shock? I hope not. But Southampton at long odds-on are now going to be at this price for the whole season in home matches,
judged on the work recently of new boss Nigel Adkins.

Adkins has them organised and fitter (finally). A mini run of four games unbeaten is just what the Saints wanted. They also wanted those two ropey penalty decisions last weekend (read above)! Although Southampton could have only one fit striker
available this Saturday, they do have midfielder Adam Lallana back, who is simply the finest creative player the division has.

Suggested bets: Back Southampton to win 1-0 and 2-0 @ [7.20] and [7.00]

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1. Ian Bailey | 08 October 2010

   I have to disagree with the way you have summed up the Brighton v Bournemouth game. Like you I rate Bournemouth, but to suggest that Brighton's approach is "no-nonsense" and "nothing too flashy" does a disservice to the football we have played so far. Plenty of league 1 managers have said that Brighton are the best team in the league, and there's no question thay are the best passing team in league. Cheers.

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