League One Betting Preview: V is for value

English Football League / Alan Dudman / 16 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Leeds are in great form but should Tranmere really be as big as [5.2] at Elland Road? And can a rejuvenated Yeovil keep another clean sheet against Hartlepool? Alan Dudman's Best Bet: Back Tranmere @ [5.20].

The letter 'V' means three things to me: V - the excellent sci-fi series starring
Marc Singer as Donovan from the late 80s. V for a football player simply known as V, who turned up at my old football club claiming to be a Turkish under-21 international - probably at table tennis as he turned out to be rubbish. And finally V for value - that word backers are always seeking.

As a kid I always pretended to be Donovan (and sometimes recently, but that's another story), a real maverick who amazingly avoided the lasers of the aliens in every single battle. Anyway, there are no aliens nor lasers on show at Elland Road this weekend, but there surely is an outstanding bit of value.

Leeds United [1.83] v Tranmere Rovers [5.20], the draw [3.75]

Leeds sit fifth in the table with 75 points, Tranmere sit sixth with just three points less. But look at the price discrepency - should Rovers be as big as they are? And should Leeds be as short as that? Well the answer is no to both, but a more emphatic no answers the former.

The Elland Road club are in terrific form no doubt about that. They played well against Leicester on Monday, created chances and can count themselves unlucky not to have got a point from the game. That defeat ended an excellent run of 11 games without a loss, and at home Leeds are imperious - they've won their last nine on the trot.

The game this weekend is huge, and boss Simon Grayson has urged his team for one final push. Defensively, Grayson faces a bit of a poser. He has to decide who'll partner the rock-solid Richard Naylor at the back. Rui Marques is fit again, whilst Sam Sodje excelled against the Foxes. I really like Sodje as I saw a lot of him when he was at Brentford. Awesome in a tackle, if slightly erratic, and brilliant in the air. He would get my nod to start.

The country's leading scorer Jermaine Beckford meanwhile has missed the last three games with injury. The 25-year-old was almost there for Monday, he'll be nice and fresh and could be back to boost the Whites.

But let's deal with Tranmere. They have been steady Eddy this term, creeping under the radar and slowly going about their business.

This game could determine the play-off hopes for both, with Moore admitting, "It's a hell of a game for both teams, and the draw will suit Leeds. If we get three points, the garden gate opens, if we don't - the gate slams shut in our faces."

Centre-back Ian Goodison, who has been key at the back this term, is suspended after his dreadful two-footed lunge at Hereford. Midfielder Antony Kay will drop back from midfield - but his goals (11 in total) could be missed from the middle of the park.

Moore has said he could go for broke, but that wouldn't mirror Tranmere on their travels, as they often are very tight away from Prenton Park and rarely bang in two or three. They don't score many, and they really would be potent if they had a Beckford in their side.

Yes, Leeds are good, but Tranmere are in form too and have an almost identical position, therefore the value lies with backing the away team, and that 'V word!

Recommendations: Back Tranmere @ [5.2]
Back 0-1

Yeovil Town ['2.42] v Hartlepool [3.20], the draw [3.45]

Since I tipped up Millwall to beat Yeovil at Huish Park a couple of weeks ago, I have been waiting for the Glovers to get back at home. I really underrated how Terry Skiverton has turned things round there - much to my chagrin that day - but it's time to get back some of that money.

Yeovil away aren't great, Yeovil at home are a different ball game altogether. They are virtually safe from relegation, and haven't conceded a goal for 360 minutes. I always like clean sheets as you can base your betting around that.

Midfielder Gary Roberts sits out with a suspension - not surprising considering his horrendous launch on Andy Gallinagh on Monday. Bristol City loanee David Noble is a good replacement.

Skiverton hasn't lost a game at home since he took over from Russell Slade, and one more win will virtually seal League One safety. Although Hartlepool are erratic and score goals, Yeovil look a solid proposition at the price.

Recommendations: Back Yeovil/Yeovil @ [4.10]
Back 1-0 @ [9.80]
Back 2-0 @ [14.50]