English Football League / Alan Dudman / 04 March 2010 /

Tranmere could be in for a hiding at home to Pardew's men, Swindon are rattling in the goals and the Canaries anticipate an easy afternoon. Alan Dudman selects the weekend's best third tier bets.

Tranmere Rovers [4.50] v Southampton [2.00], the draw [3.5]

This Tuesday something big happened. It wasn't on my usual five mile run around north London, as I glided past 'Minty' from Eastenders....yes it was him!!! No, something even bigger than than that occurred - Southampton absolutely smashed Huddersfield at St Mary's. A 5-0 drubbing of the Terriers was just about the performance from any team this season - and Alan Pardew's men are now [7.40] in the promotion market. I think that's a wager worth having.

It's been a season of highs and lows down on the coast, but I am so pleased Pardew has turned things round (as a Hammers fan I always held him in high esteem), and he's doing it with a terrific brand of free-flowing attacking football. The Saints have surged towards the play-offs, and now rock up in 10th place with 55 points. It's amazing
to think they started the season in minus numbers.

Southampton's last two games have resulted in 5-0 and 5-1 wins, they haven't lost since December and they have conceded just four goals in their last nine games, which leads me to question why on earth are they trading at evens for this Saturday?

I seemed to have focussed on Tranmere a fair bit recently, a team who continue to struggle despite the sterling work of physio/manager Les Parry. Rovers have extended the loan of Watford forward Marvin Sordell this week, but compare him to umpteen goals combo Lee Barnard and Rickie Lambert - and you're talking different gravy.

Rovers look on a hiding to nothing here. I'm not sure Parry has the team to stymie Saints for 90 minutes. If he goes at them attacking, he'll get beat. Which is why there is only one winner here.

Suggested bets: Back Southampton to win @ [2.00]
Back 0-2 @ [10.50]
Back Southampton in promotion market @ [7.40]


Swindon Town [1.76] v Bristol Rovers [5.30], the draw [3.95]

Swindon are none too shabby themselves in the promotion market, and are trading at around [3.90] to reach the Championship. Danny Wilson's side currently reside in fifth, and are one of the best home teams in the division, with a mighty impressive 10 County Ground wins from their last 11 (and that was a draw).

Saturday's 0-0 draw at Leyton Orient was a minor setback, but Orient are in reasonable form, and done well to keep at bay the dynamic duo of Charlie Austin and Billy Paynter. I personally never rated the latter whenever I saw him in the flesh, but 22 goals already for 'The Paynter Man' has firmly put me in my place. His partner Austin is the better player, and having been plucked from non-league Poole in October - has shown us the players are out there. His run of 13 goals
in 16 starts has led to speculation an England U21 call-up won't be too far away.

Swindon look a shoe-in at [1.76], but I am more interested in the overs market here. The Robins have scored more than three goals on six occasions since December, and are rattling strikes in all over the place at home. The overs price of [2.04] looks outstanding value.

Suggested bets: Back over 2.5 goals @ [2.04]
Back 3-0 @ [18.00]

Norwich City [1.39] v Yeovil Town [11.00], the draw [4.90]

The Canaries are storming clear at the top of the table, and are now [1.70] to win the title, with Leeds drifting out to [3.35]. Saturday's game at home to Yeovil meanwhile looks a fairly straightforward task, in which I have trouble seeing Yeovil scoring at all.

Norwich are probably not playing at their best, but won't need to be as Yeovil can't score at all lately.

Suggested bets: Back 2-0 [7.70] and 3-0 [9.00].

Elsewhere, Huddersfield have got to bounce back from the mauling in midweek at Southampton, and trade at [2.38] to
win at Gillingham. I don't expect too many goals in that either, and a good ugly 1-0 would be the perfect reply for Lee Clark.

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