League One Betting Preview: Pardew plan reaps rewards

English Football League / Alan Dudman / 08 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Weekend bets:

Back Hartlepool to beat Brentford @ [2.40]
Back Norwich to beat Carlisle 0-1 [8.00] and 0-2 [11.00
Lay Southend against Southampton @ [2.50]

Improving Saints target three Friday night points, Bees need to tighten up at the back and Canaries look the value in title race...

Southend United [2.50] v Southampton [3.10], the draw [3.50]

Friday tends to mean Roots Hall, and this Essex based affair could be a good opportunity for Southampton to gain their first away win of the season. Alan Pardew's side are beginning to turn it round at home - they've won two of their last three - and I think the time is right for them to start doing the same on their travels.

Progress has been slow and steady under Pardew, but his thorough planning, scouting, and fitness work is starting to reap rewards. Goals are coming, and it's no coincidence that hefty purchase Rickie Lambert is looking fitter and sharper now than he was at the start of the season (and he's bagged three in three).

Overall they look more disciplined and creative, they are engineering chances, and they do like to get lots of balls into the box where Lambert is waiting.

Here you've got a classic conundrum. A home side that don't give much away, an away team in form, scoring more goals. I would be tempted to back Southampton outright, but to get the draw running for us too, will just stick up a lay of Southend at the shorter price.

Recommendations: Lay Southend @ [2.50]
Back 0-0 [12.00], 1-1 [14.00]

Hartlepool [2.40] v Brentford [3.30], the draw [3.55]

Our second dollop of Friday night action should hopefully get the weekend off to a good start, and for this game I am dead against Brentford.

The Bees head north seeking the first win away since the opening day of the season.
Alarmingly for Andy Scott's men, their form has taken a somewhat alarming dip, whilst goals seem to be impossible to come by if they are not at Griffin Park.

Defence could be the bigger problem though, as Scott ranted he wanted to 'rip his defenders heads off' after Saturday's 2-3 loss to Swindon. They may haven been a tad unlucky in conceding 11 in three games, but they are looking a bit of a soft touch at the moment.

Hartlepool meanwhile owe me one, and this is an ample chance for them to get back on track. Saturday's 3-1 loss at Exeter flattered the Grecians, as Pool dominated the second half completely. If they can get their cutting edge up front, they should be able to brush aside Brentford, although not quite by the margin many may expect.

Recommendations: Back Hartlepool to beat Brentford @ [2.40]
Back Hartlepool win 1-0 [9.00], 2-0 [12.00]

Carlisle United [3.25] v Norwich City [2.36], the draw [3.60]

This looks fairly simple. Norwich have banged in nine goals in their last two games, and absolutely wholloped in-form Bristol rovers recently, 5-1. They've come back into [18.00] for the title, and having tipped them at the start of the season, would be tempted to delve into that once again.

Under Paul Lambert the Canaries look as though they are moving the ball better, and should have too much class and guile for a Carlisle side who last won at home against Tranmere. Enough said.

Recommendations: Back Norwich @ [2.36]
Back 0-1 [8.00], 0-2 [11.00]