English Football League / Alan Dudman / 05 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Alan Dudman stops longing for South American education and Northern beer long enough to make his picks for this weekend's League One football. Best Bet: Northampton v Tranmere - back under 2.5 goals.

I was having a look at the markets on Wednesday night for this weekend's games and stumbled across a clutch of teams I had never heard of.........Uni de Sucre, Uni San Martin, Vasas, and
Bolton reserves. You know it is amazing what Betfair offers these days on the footy section.

I love the sound of Uni de Sucre, I really wish I could have studied or played there, sounds far more exotic than North London Polytechnic. Anyway we have some more familiar names to deal with this Saturday and I am relishing another poke at some of these battles.

Crewe [2.08] v Hereford United [2.80], the draw [3.45]

Interestingly enough, the local Crewe public house - The King's Arms - offers a pint of Congleton at £1.90! Amazing value you will agree. Sadly no such value in the outrights on this game.

Neither side appeals at the price, they both look too short, and they are both extremely risky. Crewe had really picked up before their midweek defeat against Carlisle, whilst Hereford on their
travels have been nothing short of dismal.

In true Simon Cowell style: "Would I back Crewe at evens?" No. "Would I back Hereford at 6/4?" No.

Therefore, sitting in the corner nudging and winking at me are the over goals markets.....As appealing as Danni Minogue sitting next to me on the judges table. Ok we can all dream.

Crewe are just plain erratic. Boss Gudjon Thordason should be applauded for his attacking approach though. Realising the need for wins, he is now going with a brave 5-2-3. It works some weeks, others it doesn't. They conceded five against Northampton, they scored four at Hartlepool.

Recommendation: Back over 2.5 goals

Northampton [2.56] v Tranmere Rovers [2.72], the draw [3.40]

Stuart Gray's Northampton are hovering dangerously above the drop zone and may well have breathed a sigh of relief when Tuesday's game against the MK Dons was abandoned as they are in wretched form.

The Cobblers really need to start winning, and winning fast. Mind you so do Tranmere - they've won only once on their travels since October.

Both teams are struggling up front for this weekend. Northampton are missing leading scorer Adebayo Akinfenwa (suspended), whilst Ryan Gilligan is a doubt.

Rovers are threadbare in the striker department these days. They have struggled without messrs Curran and Greenacre recently, and they'll be joined by Bas Savage who has broken his metatarsal and is looking at a fairly lengthy lay-off.

Both are a bit out of form, both find goals hard to come by. And with the striker shortage in both camps, unders looks the wise option.

Recommendations: Back under 2.5 goals
Back the draw @ [3.40]
Back 0-0, 1-1

Huddersfield Town [2.38] v Millwall [3.05], the draw [3.40]

Huddersfield boss Lee Clark must still be seething at the late goals that recently cost them six points. Two victories really would have put them in the play-off mix -which is precisely where Millwall have been all season.

The Lions have two games in hand over second placed Peterborough and have been excellent on their travels, losing just two in their last 10.

An interesting quote from Clark this week: "I don't settle for 1-0's and 2-1's, I want us to get 3-1 and 4-1. It's the only way to play and I don't want to see long balls."

Stirring stuff perhaps, but I am not sure the Terriers quite have the players. I think few goals and draw written all over it here.

Recommendations: Back the draw @ [3.40]

Weekend best bets:

Crewe v Hereford - back over 2.5 goals

Huddersfield v Millwall - back the draw @ [3.40]

Northampton v Tranmere - back under 2.5 goals

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