League One Betting Preview: No defensive black holes for miserly Foxes

English Football League / Alan Dudman / 11 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Alan Dudman confronts his Swindon complex, reflects on the mysteries of the division and tips Leeds to hit top gear.

Many of you would have noticed last week that the copy boys on the Betfair desk labelled me a 'heartbreaker'. A soubriquet I found most refreshing, considering some of the other words often used to describe me nearly always end in the same three letters.

Ever wondered what happened to Johnny Shentall? No, me neither.

Last Saturday proved to be fairly fruitful following wins for Orient [tipped at [4.10]] and Carlisle (which landed us the overs bet]. The same game at Brunton Park also saw us finally bag a correct scoreline as 'Deadly Doug' set up a three goal thriller.

With the talk this week of The Big Bang, and various boffins trying to unlock the mysteries of the universe. I will attempt to unlock the various mysteries in League One this Saturday (although granted, a 2:2 in media studies hardly qualifies me as a boffin).

First up for me this weekend is Essex, a phrase I often used in my 20s. Southend at [1.85] look really strong as they entertain my bete noire - Hereford United.

Steve Tilson's side have failed to win since the opening day of the season, but they showed plenty of positives signs last week in what ultimately proved to be an unlucky 2-1 defeat at Carlisle.

Two good signings of Freedman and Christophe were highlighted in last week's column, and this will be a golden opportunity for Southend (who were a play-off team last season) to kick-start their campaign.

The Essex boys are also playing pretty well. The 5-2 defeat at Walsall could be considered a freak as they were the better team for an hour. Whilst Carlisle got a dubious penalty (thankfully) last week, a game which they didn't deserve to lose - according to Tilson.

Hereford amazingly are unbeaten in two, and have started to look tighter at the back. However, Graham Turner's side have lost all three games away from Edgar Street this season, I do not expect this to change.

I fancy Southend so strongly I would also advise laying Hereford in the Asian Handicap with +0.5 and +1.0.

Rewind many years and defender Bruno N'Gotty was enjoying life at the San Siro, plying his trade for AC Milan alongside the likes of the great Boban, the incomparable Albertini and the majestic George Weah.

Fast forward a decade and N'Gotty, along with the mighty Paul Dickov, Matt Fryatt and Steve Howard, finds himself in the midlands preparing for a grand old tussle against Millwall.

I am of course talking about Leicester - who just about look the best side in the division thus far. Unsurprisingly the Foxes have now usurped Leeds as title favourites, and currently trade at [3.8].

But let's deal with this Saturday's game. If short priced favourites are your thang, then Leicester [1.63] to beat Millwall [6.4] is quite possibly one of the strongest ever odds-on shots I have seen.

The Midlanders remain unbeaten this term and have scored a whopping 13 goals in their last four games. You should also remember that they had the best defensive record in The Championship last term - which has carried over to this campaign in a lower division, and are as miserly as ever conceding only one goal all season.

It is highly unlikely Millwall will breach this defence, although Lewis Grabban's pace and ability on the ball is most certainly a danger.

I don't envisage any problems for the home side here. They have a great attack too and will have way too much ammunition for Kenny Jackett's Londoners. If the price outright is too short for you, then look no further than a Leicester victory at 2-0 or 3-0 on the correct scorelines.

Swindon Town are a side I have avoided so far in any of my columns, but five weeks in to the season, I feel comfortable enough to advise a lay at [3.35] as they entertain the mighty Leeds.

The Whites of Yorkshire are beginning to hit top gear. They've responded brilliantly to the shock home defeat to Oldham, and have since embarked on a five match unbeaten run including the epic dismantling of woeful Crewe at Elland Road seven days ago.

The triumvirate of Beckford, Robinson and Becchio has yielded 14 goals between them this season, 3 more than the whole Swindon team have managed. Leeds are not too bad a price at [2.24], but the better value is in the lay of the home team.