League One Betting Preview: Hardly El Classico

English Football League / Alan Dudman / 18 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Robert Snodgrass battles for the ball in last year's play-off between Leeds and Millwall

"The Lions have a solid back line with a good protection unit in front, and in Steve Morison they have a striker who is finding his form. They are up to winning this."

Simon Grayson needs his side to find their form for the visit of the Lions while Norwich are a class above and Wycombe could yet survive. Alan Dudman selects the weekend's best third tier bets.

Leeds United [2.00] v Millwall [4.10], the draw [3.85]

I recently sat dow to watch the Monday night televised game of Colchester and Brighton - and 90 minutes later wished I'd switched over to view the curiously addictive 'Snog, Marry, Avoid' with Jenny Frost.

There wouldn't have been any snogging going on that night at the Weston Homes Community Stadium, and there was almost certainly no marriage (not unless you count the close relationship of the words long and ball). It really ought to have been an avoid job in hindsight. There will be no avoidance this Monday however, as Sky TV have got Leeds and Millwall for the live encounter (and a ton of in-play markets) for us to feast on....and I can 'Sky Plus' Frost with pod later.

Leeds have been somewhat ropey in 2010, they've managed just three wins since the turn of the year, and have played poorly in matches against Walsall, Brighton and Brentford. Whites boss Simon Grayson needs his team to find their form fast if they want to see themselves as automatic promotion candidates. Last Saturday they lost at Southampton, a game in which the Saints done a good job of strangling the match when Leeds needed to kick on.

It won't quite be 'El Classico', but Millwall simply play well against the better teams. The pressure will be on Leeds to come out and play, Millwall can go and soak and stop, with the hope of hitting them on the break. The Lions have a solid back line with a good protection unit in front, and in Steve Morison they have a striker who is finding his form. Millwall should have the game to suit and are up to winning this.

Recommended bets: Back Millwall to win @ [4.10]
Back 0-1 Millwall [12.00]
Back under 2.5 goals @ [2.00]


Swindon Town [3.10] v Norwich City [2.50], the draw [3.46]

Another top-of-the-table clash for the weekend, and Saturday's game between these two sides looks the Martini before Monday night's olive. Norwich are simply the best team in League One by miles, their passing and movement these days is way in excess of anything else knocking around this division.

Last weekend's 3-1 win at Huddersfield was huge, and the way they coasted to victory at The Galpharm was rather frightening, as are the options in front of goal for the 'la machina yellow and green'. Huddersfield are good (if not very good), yet Norwich tore them apart. Goals are plentiful, yet the dirty work in the middle of Korey Smith and Darrel Russell should also be praised - they win the 50/50s and the second balls - which helps the ton of ball players they have all around the park.

Swindon are decent promotion contenders themselves, and Tuesday night's 1-0 success at Southampton was described by boss Danny Wilson as a 'monster, monster' win. The Robins now sit fourth, and are a team that keep the ball well with
the abilty to soak up pressure for long periods - they will need both in abundance against Paul Lambert and company.

Recommended bets: Back Norwich to win [2.50]
Back 0-1 @ [9.00]. Back 1-2 @ [13.00]

Wycombe Wanderers [2.26] v Exeter City [3.50], the draw [3.60]

A game that Jenny Frost could throw into the 'avoid' bin, but nonetheless a game that gives us a fairly good shout of landing the odds with Wycombe. Gary Waddock's team have a slim chance of survival, and seem to be playing with a degree of promise. Exeter on the other hand can't score, and I wouldn't be too convinced by Wednesday night's 1-0 win against Bristol Rovers.

Exeter have a young team, and a squad which have suffered from injuries and suspensions. Wycombe in my mind, have more ability to score, and in this sort of game, that should be enough.

Recommended bets: Back Wycombe to win [2.26]
Back Wycombe 1-0 [8.90]