English Football League / Alan Dudman / 12 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Alan Dudman explains why big name managers don't always succeed in the hurly-burly of League One. Elsewhere, our man sorts the golden tickets from the oompa-loompas...

A big thank you to some of my friends who e-mailed me last week, all reacting to the column seven days ago in which I described myself as the Wim Jonk of Wembley. As with all cyberspace banter - I soon had been transformed from Wim Jonk to Willy Wonka. Another mate called me a Wonka too, although I had to correct his spelling and point out there was no 'e' or 'r' in the name Wonka.

To gain access to the chocolate factory, you of course need a golden ticket. And three good
betting mediums (Southampton, Walsall and Colchester) will hopefully be the Charlie Buckets this week, rather than the Augustus Gloops.

Walsall [1.85] v Stockport County [4.10], the draw [3.45]

Stockport are the peanut cracknell of the division. I laid them last week in the Cup, and it
was a cheap lay that backfired. However, I stick to my guns and am firmly of the opinion
that even a position in the relegation zone is a slight over-achievement.

A 5-0 win against Tooting and Mitcham ain't worth a bag of sand. Part of me also thinks that
an FA Cup third round entry could be vitally important to Gary Ablett's side purely from the financial side of things, as the Hatters have been struggling off the pitch for a while, and a big tie could make a huge difference to their balance. On the pitch, some good kids have come up short away from home, in particular against the big boys of Norwich and Millwall
where they were completely torn apart.

I like Walsall, and have liked them in many an article. Chris Hutchings' side pass the ball ok, they employ wingers with full-backs pushing on to bang in crosses, but seem to lack a goal-getter to finish off the promising build-up play.

Defensively they are very sound, and are unlikely to concede against an impotent County.
They've actually played better against the high-flyers. MK Dons, Norwich and Colchester could all have been beaten if good performances had yielded goals.

Last week in the Cup was a job done on a bumpy pitch at Stourbridge, and back in League One
action, I think they are a very solid conveyance this weekend.

Recommendation:

Back Walsall @ [1.85]
Back Walsall to win 1-0 @ [9.78], and 2-0 @ [12.00]

Southampton [1.70] v Brighton [5.60], the draw [3.8]

Sunday kick-off

Brighton have a new manager in the shape of Gus Poyet. A big name appointment yes, but big names don't often work in the hurly-burly, hustle and bustle lower leagues. Poyet has a big job on his hands.

Alan Pardew has Southampton playing, and has them winning. They are scoring for fun, and also conceding a few. Forwards Rickie Lambert and David Connolly are better than this division, and the Saints have what most of the division haven't - a rich supply
of goals. The most valuable currency....well that and gold.

Last weekend's 3-2 win at Bristol Rovers was interesting form the point of view that Pardew tinkered with his formation and tried a 4-4-2 for the full 90 minutes. It was the first time he used it away from home and it sort of worked and didn't. Pardew said they should have won 3-0, but the goals conceded means he will probably revert back to a 4-5-1 this Sunday.

Recommendations:

Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.90]
Back Southampton to win 3-1 @ [16.00] and 3-0 [17.00]

Colchester [1.62] v Exeter [5.50], the draw [3.80]

Exeter are poor on their travels and defensively have more holes than Judith Chalmers. Or should
that be hols?

Colchester's unbeaten league record under Aidy Boothroyd was ended at Milwall recently, but they are strong enough to pound Exeter this weekend and are well equipped to deal with the Grecians pop-gun attack.

Recommendation: Back Colchester to win 2-0 [11.00] and 3-0 [14.00]

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