League One Betting Preview: Gills look good to continue electric start

English Football League / Alan Dudman / 13 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Recommended Bets:
Back Gillingham to beat Tranmere at 3.15
Back Leyton Orient v Oldham - the draw at 3.75
Back Wycombe to beat Leeds @ 4.00

After a dramatic opening day, Alan Dudman warns punters not to get carried away as he looks forward to this weekend's League One action... Best Bet: Back Gillingham to beat Tranmere at [3.15].

Last weekend was quite simply crazy in League One. Not the kind of self-proclaimed craziness often employed by someone who wears a silly tie and Daffy Duck socks and is convinced (and is willing to tell everyone within earshot) that they are utterly bonkers.

No Sir, last weekend witnessed the kind of craziness that gave us on average three goals a game. A weekend when Norwich conceded seven (and in true vidiprinter style....yes SEVEN) and a weekend in which Gillingham scored five (ok, Five).

And four mentions of the word 'weekend' in an intro (four).

Punting, as pointed out in Dave Farrar's excellent column - The Perfect Punter - can be about learning from mistakes, and actually all about learning. And we learned a few things from last Saturday.

One thing we mustn't do is overreact. For instance Norwich drifted out from [7.00] to a high of [17.5] - ok they were gubbins last weekend, but the tortoise eventually beat the hare.

It will take us about a month to properly get a handle on some of these teams, and maybe a bit longer. But the promoted teams have all started well, and the big guns (Leeds, Southampton and Charlton) aren't quite blitzing teams as the market would have us believe.

This Saturday, I am quite keen to oppose Tranmere [2.44]. I mentioned in one of my summer updates my lack of interest in backing John Barnes' side. Any club that brings in a wave of loan signings is a plan to steer well clear of. Rovers have lots, they've also lost their best player in Antony Kay. His loss veyr much other's gain.

It wasn't a particularly good start to the season when losing 2-0 at Yeovil, although things looked better during the midweek Carling Cup success over Grimsby. Key to that may have been dropping 19-year-old centre-back Ash Taylor. He was replaced by short-term deal man Marlon Broomes on Tuesday, and I expect the 31-year-old to feature alongside Ian Goodison again.

Tranmere face newly promoted Gillingham this weekend, and the Gills are motoring with an opening day 5-0 stuffing of Swindon. Followed swiftly by dismantling Plymouth 2-1 in the Carling Cup. Ok, we mustn't overreact, but at [3.15] they look good value to continue their electric start. Gills manager Paul Stimson has the priceless commodity - goals. And forward Simeon Jackson has got the scouts sniffing around with his four in two games thus far. Defensively I think they have looked reasonably strong so far.

Solid is very much the word that would describe Leyton Orient's start. Last Saturday's 2-1 win at Bristol Rovers was hard to knock, although The Pirates were a bit unlucky not to take something from the game as they did have a few chances. The scoreline was mirrored on Tuesday with cup joy over Colchester. It was from backline (working hard, organised and solid) to frontline (hardworking and dangerous), a real seven out of 10 performance.

Orient tackle Oldham [3.25] at Brisbane Road, and Oldham should be upgraded slightly from a low key start. An opening day blank versus Stockport doesn't tell the story - they battered the goal that day. A last minute midweek defeat to Carlisle saw boss Dave Penney rest a few forwards.

The Latics have players to return, and Penney is a canny operator at this level. I think this is a bit tighter than the market would have us believe. I give Oldham a chance to get
a draw, in a contest between two well organised teams.

I was with Wycombe last weekend against Charlton, and they really could have got something from that game. They tackle Leeds this Saturday, and this game is interesting.

Ignore Wycombe's midweek loss to Posh in the Cup, Posh were blinding on the night and Wycombe rested players. Defensively I would be slightly worried about Peter Taylor's side, as they have been a bit sloppy in dealing with set-pieces and corners. However, Taylor is a top notcher at tactics, coaching and gameplans. If they can get that sorted, they could give Leeds a scare.

Simon Grayson can recall Jermaine Beckford who was rested in midweek, Becchio should also start. The Whites aren't value [2.04] for the trip to Adams Park. They've ground out two wins with functional displays. Of course I worry about the threat of Beckford but Wycombe represent a bit value at double the price. And I will be sticking with my Wanderers project for a bit!