English Football League / Alan Dudman / 30 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Alan Dudman is looking forward to a trip to the dentists but a number of managers will be hoping their players don't let them down with toothless displays on the final day of the League One season. Best Bet: Back Brighton HT/FT to beat Stockport.

It's D-day folks. And that stands for two things this week. From a personal point of view, 'd' is for dentist. My front teeth lost an argument with a particularly nasty baguette on Monday, and I am off to get them sorted. However, there are far more exciting developments in store this Saturday - as D-day could stand for errr, relegation (demotion? ed). Let the scrap for survival begin.

Mind you, I am quite looking forward to seeing my dentist again this week, she reminds me of the girlfriend of Marcus in the BBC's much underrated soap/drama/comedy Eldorado.

We move on at pace. And just to recap on what can happen for those who have been away for the past nine months (perhaps in Spain?), here we go........

Leicester and Posh are up. The play-off spots are all but fixed, bar Tranmere and
Scunthorpe fighting for the final place. Northampton need at least a point to give themselves a chance for survival. Carlisle have to beat Millwall to stay up, whilst Brighton can guarantee their status in the division by beating Stockport at home. Hartlepool are still mathematically in the mix, and need a point at Bristol Rovers to assure their future.

You still with me?

Regarding the relegation market. Crewe have all but lost the fight and trade at [1.02] to go
down. Carlisle's price is [1.32]. Brighton and Northampton are both around [4.70], and
Hartlepool (who have a superior goal difference), can be backed at a whopping [55.00].

Brighton and Hove Albion [1.56] v Stockport County [6.60], the draw [3.95]

This game virtually sold out on Monday, and the atmosphere will be red hot for a game that Albion simply have to win to keep themselves in League One for next season.

Brighton always remind me of a good pal of mine from a few years back. Gaz loved the Seagulls, and I am sure he'll be there praying his team get the result. Good luck
Gazza - I hope you do.

The fans of course can play a huge part this weekend, and I hope the players feel the full force from the crowd. Russell Slade's side have done what most sides do when
faced with the drop - and started to win games. They've taken 13 points from a possible 18 recently, and can make one final push across the survival line.

It's a pretty silly price at [1.56], but with the stakes so high, you were never going to get anything above evens. Stockport are huge considering the young talent they have, but their season is over, and Jim Gannon will be a manager that quite a few clubs will be interested in over the summer months.

Recent signing Lloyd Owusu has been an absolute star in bagging six goals from six games. He's red hot, and with messrs Hart and Murray possibly back in the frame, the Seagulls look unopposable here.

Recommendations: Back Brighton HT/FT
Back Brighton to win 2-0

Carlisle United [1.96] v Millwall [2.06], the draw [3.75]

Remember Carlisle winning five of their first eight games at the start of the season? Seems a long time ago doesn't it? Well it's been a wretched run since, and Greg Abbott's side now face relegation.

Their last win was back in March, and it doesn't look great. They need a win, and need it badly, as three points here could mean survival.

Carlisle have Jimmy Glass as their guest of honour on Saturday. And if you don't know who he is, well shame on you! Ten years ago the goalkeeper pulled off one of the most amazing pieces of football history. But can lightning strike twice?

Northampton's loss in midweek was a major boost for the Cumbrians, and they take on a Millwall side who have already secured a play-off berth.

From a punting point of view these games can be a nightmare. Carlisle's form doesn't warrant that price - but the situation does. Millwall are the better side, but will Kenny Jackett rest a few players with the play-offs in mind?

The Lions are in really good nick, and momentum is a word that will be mentioned with the bigger games in mind. Perhaps they might have an eye on the semi-final, but victory could mean a top four finish - and a top four finish equals a favourable schedule for the play-offs.

It's a really tricky game this one, but with so much at stake for the home side, I will ask for [2.00] on them winning.

Recommendations: Back Carlisle @ [2.00] to beat Millwall