League One Betting Preview: Back a tight derby at the Den

English Football League / Alan Dudman / 11 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Dudders believes Millwall can win Saturday's South London derby

"High octane derbies can often boil over, either with plenty of goals and bad challenges, or they can fail to live up to the hype."

Millwall against Charlton is one of several top League One games coming up this Saturday, all of which have the potential to cause a ripples in the promotion markets, writes Alan Dudman.

Millwall [2.32] v Charlton Athletic [3.45], the draw [3.15]

Ahhh, memories of my days living in south east London come flooding back as we head, feet first maybe, into this weekend's derby and the battle of the 'sarf'. Millwall are in good health at the moment, and tackle their third game in the space of a week. Last Saturday's 2-2 draw at Walsall was a slight surprise, but convincing wins either side of that game (including Tuesday's 3-1 thumping of Carlisle) mean we're not going to get too much fat on the bone with their price. Factor in their impressive home form - and [2.32] is just about right.

That home record would be giving Charlton's boss Phil Parkinson plenty to mull over. Millwall have won their last four in Bermondsey, and have only conceded the one (to Norwich). In a word - impressive.

The Addicks will tackle a tough, strong, ultra organised and team, with form that would suggest they are playing ok - without being brilliant - something Charlton coach Mark Kinsella has touched on during the build up to this game.

High octane derbies can often boil either with plenty of goals and bad challenges, or they can fail to live up to the hype. My angle of attack here is to concentrate on Millwall's uncanny knack of playing well against the better teams and not letting them play. In Djimi Abdou they have the perfect spoiler, and his influence in the game could be crucial. I would take the view of the latter, with perhaps the odd goal nicking it.

Recommended bets: Back Millwall to win @ [2.32]
Back Millwall to win 1-0 @ [8.80]
Back under 2.5 goals @ [2.00]

Huddersfield [2.88] v Norwich City [2.60], the draw [3.50]

Yet another top-of the-table clash at The Galpharm, with Huddersfield set to defend their proud unbeaten home record at the hands of league leaders Norwich City. With a couple of away day losses (5-0 to Southampton, and 2-0 to Gillingham), Terriers boss Lee Clark will be relieved to get back to Yorkshire - although not so relieved with this Saturday's opponents.

Worryingly for Clark, they've not won in three, and their attacking spark has momentarily gone. Lee Peltier has been sorely missed for two defeats, and his presence as a classy right-back could be a big help if he shrugs off an ankle injury in time. Nathan Ecclestone won't be playing however, he starts a three match ban for a moment of stupidity at Gillingham.

Norwich were back to their best with Saturday's 3-0 victory at Yeovil, a game which again highlighted the 'Holy Trinity' of Wes Hoolahan, Chris Martin and Grant Holt - who, amazingly, have notched 60 goals between themselves this season. Hoolahan played a slightly different role last weekend, and I was impressed with his tackling and workrate - not normally associated with this gifted little player.

Not many teams take points of Huddersfield at The Galpharm, and this could be the acid test for Paul Lambert's men to show how good they are. Initially, I wanted to back Norwich outright, but I cannot ignore Clark's team on home soil (and it's not often I am not with the Canaries). A scoring draw looks the likeliest scenario.

Recommended bets: Back the draw@ [3.50]
Back 1-1 @ [10.00] and 2-2 [16.00]

Elsewhere Southampton [2.58] entertain Leeds United [2.82] in what looks another pearler of a game, and another meaty atmosphere. I like the Saints, and expect them to bounce back after last weekend's shock loss to Tranmere.