English Football League / Alan Dudman / 08 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

Betfair Radio presenter Alan Dudman takes some time out from the radio studio to talk us through the best bets from the opening day of the League One season. Here's why Leeds and Lleyton Orient are good things...

Pundits and journalists alike are perhaps the worst offenders of using the phrase: "put that
in your diaries". Many of us never do, some don't even have a diary. But I can assure you
that August 9th has been etched in the Dudman black book (along with at least two members
of the opposite sex I know) to mark the start of the League One campaign and the opening
round of fixtures.

Finding suitable betting mediums for football matches played at the height of summer can
often be like finding a small piece of hay in a giant stack of needles. New managers, new
signings (or no signings in the case of my team), confident talk and misplaced targets from
the die-hards, it all equates to a potential hornets nest.

Fear not, because in that nest lurks one of the stand-out bets for the weekend, and a team
not too far away from where I am penning this piece.....Leyton Orient.

Martin Ling's east Londoners play host to newly promoted Hereford United and simply must be backed at a far too generous price of [2.3]. When backing at short odds I like everything in my favour, here I have, and I believe that the O's will be too strong for Graham Turner's side.

Firstly, many of you will remember that Orient got off to a blistering start last season - winning
five of their first six games. In fact their final League position of 14th doesn't really do them justice, as they were chasing a play-off place for most of the campaign. It was only the lack of strength in the squad and injuries that caused the rather tame tail-off .

Secondly, Orient have by far the more potent strikeforce. Adam Boyd and Wayne Gray are proven at this level (30 goals between them last term). And with the addition of former Norwich City prodigy Ryan Jarvis, they look to have far too much ammunition for Hereford.

I also like the composition of Ling's squad. Plenty of experience in the backline (including
summer signing Danny Granville). I always like to focus on a strong spine to the team, the O's have that in the shape of Paul Terry and Adam Chambers, added with dashes of creativity from former Mackem Sean Thornton and Jason Demetriou, and the home side look rather strong.

In my opinion, Hereford will struggle this season. A newly promoted side must always strengthen, and those additions should always be players that are proven in the division. Budget restrictions may have limited Graham Turner, and that has been echoed in his summer signings....mostly younger players released from larger clubs. This tactic always looks exciting, but League One is not a place for a 19-year-old brought up at a Premiership club. Here there is no time on the ball, and they often get found out.

In addition to that, Hereford relied mostly on goals from loan forwards Sherjil Macdonald and Gary Hooper last season, they are no longer at Edgar Street, and without those two, may find it beyond them to break sides down. The Bulls have just dipped in to the loan market with the acquisition of Moses Ashikodi from Watford, but I would be surprised if he proves as good as Macdonald and Hooper last season.

I would also recommend looking at the over goals markets. Orient are well capable of scoring two or threegoals here, they might concede too, so throw in a back of over 2.5 goals at [2.32].

To avoid any London bias and to keep our northern friends happy, Oldham Athletic also represent a solid bet at [2.16] to beat Millwall at Boundary Park. In fact, so keen am I on the Latics, that you could make a choice between the back or laying Millwall at [3.8], thus getting the draw running for us too.

My admiration for young and exciting managers continues here and I am a big fan of John Sheridan (imaginatively nicknamed Shez) who narrowly missed out on the play-offs in his first full season. Always easy on the eye as a player, the popular Irishman has built a good side 'oop north' and has drilled those qualities in to a side that try to play the right way.

Sheridan's biggest task this summer was to keep hold of highly talented youngsters Neal Eardley, Chris Taylor and Deane Smalley - all courted by top clubs. Not only has he done that, but the addition of six new faces on a small budget including experienced midfielder Kevin Maher makes them a stronger side this term.

I always look for goal threats in sides. Lee Hughes was a controversial signing in 2007, but if fit for the game against Millwall (toe injury), he'll prove dangerous alongside a favourite of mine, Andy Liddel, and former Rotherham hitman Chris O'Grady.

Oldham just look too dangerous against a notoriously inconsistent side such as Millwall. The Londoners were never great travellers last term and just avoided relegation. Lions boss Kenny Jackett will know the division well and has a big squad at the New Den, but a handful of signings haven't excited me nearly as much as Shez's men.

Now to end with a couple of away selections hopefully at bigger prices...

Newly-promoted Peterborough collected more points last season in League Two than Britain have managed in the last 171 outings of the Eurovision Song contest, funnily enough I got more points for my rendition of ''Waterloo" in the shower recently than Andy Abrahams got in Zagreb. Pah, the signing binman.

I digress. I like the look of Posh, I also like the look of Darren Ferguson's side at a price of [3.05] to cause a slight upset away at League One play-off semi-finalists Southend United. I wouldn't be a layer of Steve Tilson's Essex boys, and I expect them to probably be up there come the end of the season again. But Peterbrough will score bundles and bundles of goals, and as you know, Dudman likes strikers that score (Bobby Zamora do you read me?).

Ferguson's number one priority this summer was to keep hold of 33-goal hitman Aaron McLean.
The pint-sized forward was wanted by Wolves but opted to stay at London Road - mission
accomplished from Fergie II.

Posh netted virtually two goals a game last season, they'll be a danger home and away. They are strong, experienced, physical and have two major goal threats in McLean and fellow forward
Craig Mackail Smith (who netted 19 times in 2007/8) and for this reason I'll have a punt on the
away side.

Oh and Posh have a very useful young 'keeper called Joe Lewis, he is nearly nine foot tall, and
has already trained with the full England squad.

Finally, are Leeds United really [2.38] to beat Scunthorpe at Glandford Park? If so, then go
for Gary MacAllister's men as a sure-fire thing. I don't like making bold predictions, especially
for away teams. But Scunthorpe were really poor in The Championship, relegation could have a hangover effect and their squad is threadbare.

Not so long ago the Whites would have been preparing for Champions League games, perhaps
Roma, Milan or Lazio away? Scunthorpe doesn't quite have the pull, but the price does and for
that reason Leeds must be backed.

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