English Football League / Richard Walker / 10 May 2008 /

It's no Cinderella story. Richard Walker is wondering which of the ugly sisters of English football will be having a ball at Wembley in the league 2 play-off final.

This is what Football League play-off glory's all about. Fans from one of this unloved and largely unheard pair of Darlington or Rochdale will be traipsing down to Wembley in a couple of weeks in nervous anticipation.

The Quakers v The Dale; a match-up of footballing outposts at which you find the truest of true fans, since both clubs exist in the shadow of big city neighbours who tend to swallow up what supporter base they might hope to have...not to mention all the tidiest young playing talent in the locale.

But if football existed just for the elite it'd be a sad day. This is what it's all about. And whoever emerges victorious from this two-legger will be one win away from a rare promotion indeed. For it's 16 years since Darlo last went up and a mighty 34 years since Rochdale were in anything other than the basement division of English football.

Dave Penney's Quakers rather limped into the play-offs. Beset by injuries, a morale-boosting 2-0 final-day success over Shrewsbury Town might be just what was required to refocus the minds on the job in hand. They're a [2.56] chance to take a lead to west of the Pennines while Keith Hill's visitors are at the same odds as the draw, [3.25] to back.

Crucially for Darlo, both Guylain Ndumbu-Nsungu and Julian Joachim are now available to Penney and the pair just might make the difference but, as I said, the home side were just existing towards the season's end, while Rochdale were putting together a run of just one defeat in the last 12 games. The visitors got two goalkeepers injured but that's not a major problem with Tommy Lee (no, not that one), on loan from Macclesfield Town, doing the business.

There's few other significant injury worries and top scorer Adam Le Fondre is my selection, at odds of [3.7], to get the job done in the To Score (at any time) market, despite the fact livewire Rene Howe alongside him is in excellent nick too. If you prefer a home team marksman, bustling ex-Huddersfield and Preston striker Pawel Abbott's probably your man, backable at odds of [3.1] - or about [7.0] to register first during this tea-time kick-off. Dale's Gary Jones is my live outsider. An experienced campaigner, try him at odds of [11.0] in the To Score list.

When assessing the likely goal count, due deference must be paid to Darlo's mean defence. They let in just 40 goals over the campaign (compared to Rochdale's 54 and champions MK Dons' 37, to put it into context) so at the Darlington Arena will prove a tough propostion - even for a side in such rich form as the Dale.

Therefore Unders is my choice in the Over/Under 2.5 goals market, at odds of [1.68]. Perhaps go one step further and extend to an Unders bet in the 1.5 goals market - that's a more profitable [3.05] shot. It's funny, I watched the Southend-Doncaster game expecting a few goals yet, even between two confirmed attacking teams, there was this air of caution. If that's to be repeated here, allied to Darlo's stingy nature, I think going low makes sense.

Getting the flow of the game right is always a tough call. Draw/Darlington makes most appeal, with the [6.6] reward if successful. But, going against the grain of what I was saying about goals scored, my eye was drawn to Rochdale/Darlington - always a big payer these swing bets - at [34.0] to back. It's probably my brain trying to find a happy medium between Dale's goal-getting prowess and good current form and Darlo's decent home record and generally tight rear-guard.

Good job it's your shout, ultimately. Not a big League Two expert? Who cares, eh. Have a go here then sit back and take the match just that bit more seriously!

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