English Football League / Andrew Atherley / 06 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Profiling is not just a useful tool in the fight against crime; it can provide vital clues for the punter too. And nowhere more so than in the Football League play-offs, writes Andrew Atherley.

The play-offs, which kick off on Thursday night with the League Two semi-finals, are in their 20th year in the current format, and the strong body of evidence from the previous 19 years can help point the way to the likely outcomes this time round.

As a general trend, the play-offs have become more predictable. Last year, for the first time, the top seeds (that is, the highest-placed teams in the regular season) went up from each division - the peak of a trend that has seen at least one of the three top seeds promoted in the past 15 seasons.

It should not be surprising that the top seeds do well, but there are other factors that play a big part in play-off success and failure. One of the most important is momentum going into the play-offs (measured over the last eight games of the regular season), and across the three leagues at least one of the top momentum teams has gone up in 14 of the past 19 seasons.

Momentum is particularly significant in the Championship, where 12 of the last 13 play-off winners have ranked in the top two on this measure. Ten of the last 12 finals have been won by the team with the better momentum, which points to Preston v Sheffield United (first and second respectively on momentum) as the semi-final most likely to provide the overall winner.

Reading rank fourth of the quartet on momentum, which is a negative for their promotion chance. Only three times out of 19 has the team with the worst momentum been promoted from the Championship (and the last was in 1994/95). As [3.45] second favourites for promotion, Reading look poor value on the trends.

Burnley, too, have significant trends to overcome, as they rank third on seeding, momentum and away form, which is another crucial factor (for a team to be promoted through the play-offs, they play only one of the three games at home, so the ability to perform away from home is vital). Only twice in 19 years has a team been promoted from the Championship that has not ranked in the top two in at least one of those key categories. Laying Burnley at [3.95] for promotion is an option - the problem being that either they or Reading will be in the final, so they can't both be a good lay at current odds.

The better option might be to back Sheffield United, who are the most solid team in the Championship play-offs, ranking top on seeding and away form and second to Preston on momentum only on goal difference. United are favourites at [3.4] and their away form gives them an edge over Preston, who are the worst team in the play-offs on that measure - in the past 15 years no team with the worst away form has been promoted.

Leeds are the clearest play-off favourites, trading at [2.78] for promotion from League One even though the top-ranked team is MK Dons, who finished three points ahead of Leeds in the league table. As with Reading, a key factor against Leeds is that they rank lowest on away form - only 11 out of 57 play-off winners across the leagues have had that profile (four out of 19 in League One).

Leeds have momentum on their side, but MK Dons rank second on that measure and top on away form (as well as seeding) and look overpriced for promotion at [3.7].

The closest betting is in League Two, where Bury and Shrewsbury are joint-favourites on [3.8], followed by Gillingham at [3.85] and Rochdale at [4.3]. Bury arguably deserve to be clear favourites, as they rank top on seeding, momentum and away form. They are the first League Two team in the history of the play-offs to have that profile, and it is worth noting that teams with that profile have had a high success rate in the Championship and League One (five out of eight have won promotion).

The big factor in Bury's favour is that they were the best team in the regular season - this factor has been particularly important in League Two, with 13 out of 19 top seeds promoted. Sixteen of the 19 have reached the final, so the trends point to backing Bury for promotion at this stage and/or to qualify for the final at [1.82] at Shrewsbury's expense.

Across the three leagues, the most solid teams are Sheffield United, MK Dons and Bury - the only contenders to rank in the top two in the three key categories. Burnley, Scunthorpe and Rochdale are the weakest teams, ranking outside the top two in all three categories - only eight out of 57 play-off winners (14%) have had that profile, so those teams are potential lays at [3.95], [5.9] and [4.3] respectively.

As for the first legs, one of the strongest trends is the low home win rate in League One - only eight out of 38 (21%) first legs have been won by the home team, which points to a lay of Millwall and Scunthorpe. The draw rate in League One first legs is high (22 out of 38; 58%) and so is the incidence of under 2.5 goals (27/38; 71%).