English Football League / Ian Lamont / 05 November 2009 /

For Ian Lamont it starts at Kenilworth Road and ends at Wembley as he selects the best bets from the FA Cup first round fxitures featuring League Two clubs...

"The darkest hour in any man's life is when he sits down to plan how to get money without earning it."

Horace Greeley,19th century American newspaper editor and politician, could have been talking about gambling on the FA Cup - the fanciful distraction that releases a new strand of hope for every team, particularly those having mediocre seasons.

I have been pondering a few theories. Do teams near the top give two hoots about the cup? Can teams having a worse start to the season than expected turn into a cup team? Can sides out of form suddenly rekindle their season with a cup run?

Anything is possible. Last season the teams who went on to automatic promotion fell in the first two hurdles, while Gillingham, promoted via the play-offs, found fame against Aston Villa in round four.

Surely there's no harm in going a couple of rounds even if promotion is the priority.

Rochdale, full of confidence after a 4-0 thumping of leaders Bournemouth last weekend, might fit the "club due for a fall" category. Supporters are now seriously talking about the division's oldest residents going up after several near misses.

That makes Keith Hill's men layable at [2.34] at Luton Town, who have a few factors in their favour, despite being similarly bent on promotion back from the Blue Square Premier. They are the woman scorned. Lady Luck will surely sympathise. Deducted 30 points last season, they had little chance of survival in League Two but won the Johnstone's Paint Trophy. Sitting in the play-off positions, they have a new manager, Richard Money, who has yet to win and whose side will want to impress.

Accrington look vulnerable because of their own victory - against the tax man. The relief at survival might just make them relax too much against Salisbury, who could fit the bill as a team whose lowly position can easily be misread if you overlook their points deduction for going into administration. Stanley are another lay at [1.75].

Crewe are another side short of consistency who will find it tough away to a club doing well with a strong home record, York City.

Buoyed by winning at Cheltenham last Saturday, Crewe are layable at [2.25] because the victory was a rare reprieve, a second win in nine games, the others defeats. Winning at the KitKat Crescent will prove trickier, with the hosts yet to suffer defeat. For York, last weekend's defeat at Crawley - another blip on the road - could just have been the bad result before a big cup game that often happens.

I also feel that Lincoln City are vulnerable to the upset at AFC Telford. The Imps have loan defender Eric Lichaj suspended after a dismissal at Morecambe last weekend, which just adds to the problems for new boss Chris Sutton's mediocre side, whom I shall look to lay at [2.16].

Not all cup games result in shocks. One team I expect to progress are Torquay, who have shown a stubbornness that, after five draws, finally resulted in a victory last weekend, over Northampton. Cheltenham, a club in some disarray, should succumb at Plainmoor at [2.3].

For those who think it foolhardy to second guess serendipity in the cup, I would point out that I have regularly urged caution against lumping on when teams are listed as odds-on to win at home in League Two, so the cup is little different to the league in that respect.

I shall try an experiment of laying the nine League Two sides who are odds-on at home - Notts County, Accrington, Barnet, Grimsby, Hereford, Northampton, Port Vale, Shrewsbury and Burton - and let you know if I make a profit.

Best bet:

Lay Rochdale at [2.34] away to Luton

Recommended Bets:

Lay Accrington at [1.75] at home to Salisbury

Lay Lincoln at [2.16] at AFC Telford

Back Torquay at [2.3] to beat Cheltenham

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