English Football League / Editor / 11 May 2008 /

Hull City will travel to Vicarage Road to face Watford full of confidence - and why shouldn't they? We look at today's Championship play-off semi-final.

The Tigers' form might not quite match up to that of Crystal Palace out of the Championship play-off quartet, but they'd have to be doing an awful lot worse to boast the Hornets' record of one league win in the last 14 matches - albeit with nine of those games ending in draws.

Aidy Boothroyd doesn't have time to ponder on where the nine-point lead disappeared to or indeed why his January transfer acquisitions flopped for him. His job is solely on what's effectively a three-game season - and, despite their woeful run of late, Betfair layers make the home team favourites at around [2.5] to back. Hull are [3.35] and the draw is [3.25].

What's going to happen then? Frankly, who knows, this is the Championship we're talking about. The league this season which has seen a paltry 70 points good enough for play-offs qualification, let alone the modest 81 points West Bromwich Albion accrued in taking the title. Given current form, I think I'd lay Watford at a liability of [2.56], ensuring that the draw - in my opinion the most likely outcome - is working for you as well. The draw's also available at [2.0] in the Half Time result market and there's no harm in doubling your investment that way.

My eyes were drawn to the Correct Score betting where 0-0 and 1-1 tempted my investment. It's [9.4] to back a goalless draw while the one-one equation is a [6.8] shot. If you're of a firm opinion that there'll be a winner, check out what represents value to you with the 1-0 scoreline either way.

There won't be much in this game so I see Unders in the Under/Over 2.5 goals market as a sensible destination, priced as it is at [1.7]. Overs is at [2.4] if you disagree - and, with this being the most unpredictable of divisions, you may well be doing so!

That said, there are some likely suspects in the goal-getting markets. Given that he's Watford second top-scorer who's still with the club, mountainous centre-half Danny Shittu is worth a stake at [6.6] in the To Score (at any time) listing. And it might be fun to include wily veteran Dean Windass who, at 39 years of age, shows no sign of stopping. He's played enough big games to be a real threat and is a [9.0] chance to be the First Goalscorer.

It's interesting that Draw/Draw and Hull/Hull are quite similarly priced in the Half Time/Full Time market. The deduction to make is that this will be a tight affair with, perhaps, the team drawing first blood (if it's drawn at all) being resilient enough to protect what they have. Draw/Draw is [5.0] and Hull/Hull about the [5.8] mark to back. Do both; never mind doubling your stake, this is all about emerging with a profit after all.

What with all the play-off semi-finals being played over two legs, there's plenty to learn by watching the first one in closer detail than you might normally a game not immediately or relevance to you. See what you can learn this Sunday lunchtime - and it might just be applicable on Wednesday night when these two reconvene in Hull.

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