English Football League / Richard Walker / 14 May 2008 /

No side has ever won a play-off semi final after trailing by two goals going into the second leg. Aidy Boothroyd's Watford will attempt to be the first, but it's tall order for a team who have only won one of their last fifteen fixtures.

For all the trends and statistics that have gone pop during the play-off semi-final first legs, one side remained true to their current form; Watford couldn't win.

Has a team ever reached the play-offs having won just once in their most recent 15 matches? Doubtful in the extreme - but it just shows what a scintillating start they had to the season, a beginning which ultimately proved sufficient for them to be playing a part in the end.

The Tigers, meanwhile, 2-0 up from the first leg, would appear to have their team coach half-way along the M18 en route to Wembley. Of course, their manager Phil Brown and some of their players came out with the normal clap-trap about it only being half-time, blah blah blah. But no team at this level has ever turned around a two-goal deficit away from home. Are Watford really about to win by two clear goals for the first time since New Year's Day?

The overriding favourites to progress, then, are Hull; but should they be considered the most likely winners tonight? Well over the year it's the Hornets who boast the most impressive away record and, even during their barren spell, they were still turning in rugged performances and collecting draws on their travels. But it's their lack of goals - just five in their last 11 games - which suggests they're going to struggle to pull this round.

The draw on the night, a [3.6] shot, looks to me the best of the three options, with a City home win backable at [2.24] and a Watford success priced at [3.5]. The Correct Score market sees 1-1 at [7.6] to back and, for me, that's the sort of scenario I can foresee at a rocking KC Stadium tonight.

It's well documented that Kingston-upon-Hull is the biggest city in Europe without a football team in its national game's top-flight, and there's probably a feeling of now or never about their challenge for a Premier League spot, especially on the back of 'form' team Crystal Palace losing at Bristol City last night.

City have no need to press too far forward and can even afford to lose the game by the odd goal but Brown will probably take the view attack is the best form of defence since Watford's rear-guard is far from impermeable. So perhaps a score like 2-2, at [21.0], or maybe the [14.0] about a 2-1 away win are other scores worth covering.

If you followed this website for the home leg, you might have included the suggestion of Dean Windass to score - albeit First Goalscorer was the tip. Have him on your side again in what will be a pressure-cooker atmosphere. He's well used to these situations and rates a [3.4] chance To Score at any time. Hornets' Player of the Season Tommy Smith is the man to side with for the visitors. Back him at [6.8], odds from the same list.

Watford know they've got to make a rip-roaring start to get the nerves fraying in the east riding of Yorkshire. If we follow their desire into our punting, perhaps the [4.1] about them leading at Half Time looks a touch of value, in my opinion.

There was a suggestion of getting involved in the Sending Off market for the City-Palace tie last night - and, truth be told, Betfair punters should have been collecting when the Eagles' Clint Hill lunged in studs up. However Howard Webb's a bit more lenient than Mark Clattenburg, tonight's referee, so have another go at backing a red card; [4.5] to happen at the KC cauldron this evening.

The Over/Under 2.5 goals market is again a tight read. Unders are at [1.74] and Overs about [2.32]. This is a tough call since it largely depends what approach the Tigers take. If you were going to dabble in the goals, maybe [4.4] might tempt you for Over 3.5 goals in that list but I can't necessarily see that myself.

Will there be that early goal? It's [5.7] to back it to happen from 0-10 minutes and that would be a cautious recommendation, however if Watford are to prevail you fancy almost a necessity.

This is going to be a cracker - the Hornets can't afford it to be anything else.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: